tennis | Monday, February 27, 2023 9:08 AM (Revised at: Monday, February 27, 2023 1:24 PM)

Monday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Santiago, Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann

Jon Reid

Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Best Bet: Monday, February 27th

What can I say? We get one or two lucky wins a month and about 15 bad beats. Jiri Lehecka blew the handicap early but had match points on Andy Murray’s serve at 5-3 in the third set, then led 40-0 on his serve and blew all three of those. Another incredibly poor run of luck. One of the bigger chokes of the season.

This week, the tour has a pair of 500-level events. The first, in Dubai, with the second being in Acapulco, Mexico. The last tournament of the clay-court Golden Swing also takes place in the Chilean capital of Santiago. We’ll head to the latter and preview the matchup between Pedro Martinez and Yannick Hanfmann for our ATP selection on Monday.

In this article:

Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Preview
Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Best Bet

Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Preview

February 27th, 17:00 (UK Time)

I’m actually really surprised that the big German isn’t around the 1.50 odds mark in this match.

First, he’s come through the qualifying draw in blistering form. Andrea Pellgrino and Carlos Taberner may not be Martinez, but he still managed to put up a trio of 6-1 sets in the four he played.

Secondly, Martinez is in incredibly poor form in his own right. Outside of a quarterfinal in Pune where he beat a fringe Challenger Tour player in three sets and a clay specialist in three sets, the Spaniard has struggled for wins dating back to the summer.

Next, the matchup favours Hanfmann here as well for me, as his serve is much stronger, his form has been better and clay courts are still his preferred surface, despite having been an NCAA player and having a strong serve and forehand. He can play with spin and is comfortable on courts which give him a bit more time to set up his shots.

Finally, it must be noted that Santiago, Chile is over 550 metres above sea level. That thinner air rewards bigger servers, and that is another advantage for Hanfmann. It likely helped in each of his qualifying victories, and he has a history of success at altitude.

Last season, he looked really good in Gstaad, Switzerland and Kitzbuhel, Austria, up in the alps. Now those are at a higher elevation, but the point stands, and it’s obvious that his comfort on clay, along with conditions that help his already strong serve are ideal for the 31-year-old.

Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Best Bet

Even the statistics don’t do enough to dissuade me here. The raw clay-court elo ratings have Martinez ahead by the slightest of margins (and that is likely why we’re seeing so much value here).

The hold plus break percentage numbers on clay over the last year, however, actually side with Hanfmann. Even when controlling for ATP Tour-level play only, Hanfmann has a better percentage than Martinez. A lot of that may be due to success at events played at a higher elevation, but considering that is applicable to this tournament, it only strengthens the case for the German to be favoured for me.

I’m happy to stake out a position backing Hanfmann to advance.