Lucas Pouille vs Constant Lestienne Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 13/9/24

Our first preview of the day in our week of ATP Challenger Tour previews comes from the Lucas Pouille vs Constant Lestienne match at the Open Blot Rennes.

Lestienne’s win probability is only 44%, while Pouille is favored to win at 1.57 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Pouille vs Lestienne prediction is for Pouille to cover the handicap.

Lucas Pouille vs Constant Lestienne Prediction: Pouille Far More Suited to Quick Hard Courts

• Prediction: Pouille -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 2:15 am UK Time on September 13th, 2024. 

He does have more variety than Pouille, but on these quicker indoor hard courts, the service, as well as baseline power edge both reside with the former top-10. The primary concerns with backing Pouille here are 1) the fact that physically he can be shaky from match to match. 

Lestienne hasn’t been the most reliable in that respect either this year, though, which alleviates those concerns and makes the physical aspect a wash, and 2) the fact that his return game may not be what it once was in quicker conditions. He has broken in every set he’s played to this point though and he’s playing a softer server and hitter who relies more on variety and touch, which means Pouille should still see plenty of break opportunities.

In a very French-centric draw, Lestienne has beaten two other compatriots so far, but both are more well-known for their exploits down on the ITF Tour than they are at this level. I’m not sure that he’s proven he’s back to the point of beating someone like Pouille.

More tennis previews are available on the expert insights page.

Lucas Pouille Recent Form

It’s good to see the world No. 140 continue his quest to rejoin the top 100 of the ATP rankings. A win in this match and he’d jump another few spots and winning the tournament would see Pouille back into the top 125 and knocking on the door of direct entry into grand slams.

His game is well suited to these environments and with his physicality being one of his main issues, the quicker conditions and shorter points should be able to mask that potential weakness.

Having won a Challenger on clay and then qualified for Wimbledon on grass, before reaching the third round and withdrawing, Pouille is also clearly the player that has had much better form in recent months in this matchup.

I like the surface, power, and form advantages for the 30-year-old and am happy to back him while giving Lestienne the 2.5-game head start.

Constant Lestienne Recent Form

Believe it or not, this tournament represents just the third time this season that Lestienne has won multiple matches at the same tournament. Furthermore, it’s the first time he’s done so in a main draw, with the other two events having seen some of those wins come in qualifying.

Granted, he’s been playing on the main tour most of the year thanks to his incredible run around this time of the 2023 season, but it’s still been a horrible year for the elder of the two Frenchmen.

Even this week, he’s beaten Robin Bertrand and Jules Marie. Neither is the worst player out there, with Bertrand finding wins this year and Marie possessing a decent serve, but neither of those wins does nearly enough to reassure me that he’s turning a corner either.

If he did have a few good wins lately and did seem as though he was on his way back to challenging to win these types of tournaments again, I may agree that this is an acceptable handicap, but at the moment, I can’t side with this being correct when it is, essentially, a one break of serve margin of victory.

Lucas Pouille vs Constant Lestienne H2H – Stat of the Match

Pouille has the lone win in this head-to-head. He beat Lestienne last year indoors at…the Renne Challenger. Though that took three sets, the margin of victory was six games, as Pouille was clinical in both the first and third sets.

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