Reilly Opelka vs James Duckworth Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 29th

Our second men’s preview of the day also comes from the ATP’s Mubadala Citi DC Open. Let’s break down Reilly Opelka vs James Duckworth. Our Opelka vs Duckworth prediction is available below. 

Duckworth’s win probability is just under 35%, while Opelka is favoured to win at 1.47 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 25.5.

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Reilly Opelka vs James Duckworth Prediction: Aussie Undervalued Against Big Serving Opponent

• Prediction: Duckworth to win
• Best Odds: 2.90
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 3:30 am UK Time on July 29th, 2024. 

With Opelka being as serve oriented as he is, Duckworth being a strong server and quick court specialist in his own right and the Australian coming in with some decent form, I’m not sure why the market believes this is such a lopsided match.

Think of it this way. The total is set at 25.5. That implies that this ends in straight sets but either in a tiebreak and 12-games set or a pair of tiebreaks. That or it goes three sets. Either way, that total implies that this is going to be a very close match decided by the slimmest of margins.

In that respect, I agree with the total. I wouldn’t have a bet on that number. Yet we have this with one player – Opelka – as an overwhelming favourite despite everything pointing to a close encounter?

I have to back Duckworth in this spot at a price this cheap. I understand some may not like a larger staking on a big underdog, but I think the price is off enough that it makes it worth it and I’ll gladly eat the loss if Opelka does come through in a close battle. Our Opelka vs Duckworth prediction is for Duckworth to win.

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Reilly Opelka Recent Form

Have to give credit where it’s due with regards to Opelka. The big man with a monster first serve has come back after a long time away from the professional game and nearly picked up right where he left off.

In his first tournament back, he went all the way to the semifinals of the last edition of the Hall of Fame Open in Newport (or at least the last edition as it is currently constituted as an ATP 250). Then he headed down to Atlanta and bowed out in the second round to an inspired Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

Now he’ll once again jump into a main draw, as he looks to use his cannon of a serve to great effect on the quicker courts in his nation’s capital.

I have two concerns though. The first is that even though he’s a big man who doesn’t seem to play many long rallies, one has to wonder if a third straight week is a bit much for someone who hasn’t played this much at this level in a few years.

The second concern is that he had a pretty favourable draw in Newport, getting a string of players that didn’t have the biggest serves that he could get looks at on return in his wins. Not to mention, all three guys he beat were out of form and he still needed a third set in each match.

As soon as he came up against someone decent, he was defeated. Same goes for Atlanta.

Now he takes on a strong quicker courter who has been playing decent tennis and likely won’t give him nearly as many looks on return as some of the guys he managed to break in previous weeks.

I think he’s a tad overvalued here considering who he’s beaten and how he’s done it.

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James Duckworth Recent Form

I might understand this kind of price if Opelka was tearing up the lower levels of the main tour or if Duckworth was recently hurt or in terrible form.

The fact is, Duckworth actually enters this week off a decent patch of form on the grass courts.

He went 9-4 between Stuttgart, Halle and Wimbledon, losing to a trio of elite players on the lawn courts in Matteo Berrettini, Hubert Hurkacz and Alex de Minaur. Even then, in seven combined sets played as a large underdog in those matches he lost by a combined three breaks of serve.

I have absolutely no problem with his performance in those contests.

Perhaps the tiebreak record isn’t great and that’s not something you want to be struggling with in a match on a quick court with a server like Opelka, but that’s a small sample and if we’re getting to tiebreaks in each set as a 2.88 underdog, we can’t complain and will be happy to let the chips fall where they may.

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Reilly Opelka vs James Duckworth H2H – Stat of the Match

These two haven’t played any relevant matches against one another. Duckworth did beat him at a Challenger once, but that was six years ago in 2018.

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