Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Bublik Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, March 1st

To round out the week, but start the new month, we’ll look at an exciting Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Bublik tilt from the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, as the ATP 500 tournament heads into the semifinals.

Bublik’s win probability is only 26.7% while Rublev is favoured to win at 1.28 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Our Rublev vs Bublik prediction is for Bublik to win.

In this article:

• Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Bublik Prediction
• Andrey Rublev Recent Form
• Alexander Bublik Recent Form
• Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Bublik H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

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Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Bublik Prediction: In Form Underdog Too Good a Price to Pass Up

• Prediction: Bublik to win
• Best Odds: 3.79
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at am UK Time on March 1st, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Well, I won’t lie to you, I was expecting to see Bublik somewhere down in the 2.75 to 3.00 range for this match. Even in that range, I would have contemplated a small, 1/10 stakes wager on him. Get him out to well over 3.50 and I’m not sure how you can avoid a little punt on the underdog to win.

His quality has never been in doubt. Effort? Staying engaged in a match? Sure. His talent, though, is top-shelf stuff.

That’s not to say Rublev isn’t great himself. He has such an explosive serve and forehand combination, his return game has impressed me this week and he’s a pretty strong mover as well.

I’m just not sure you can rely on him to win this match at a rate in the 75% range.

Read on for more Expert Insights.

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Andrey Rublev Recent Form

It’s been another fine start to the year for Rublev, who is quickly becoming someone who beats players you’d expect him to at a very high rate – the sign of a truly elite player.

His only losses this year have come to the surging Alex de Minaur (who made his top-10 debut in January), Jannik Sinner (who won the Australian Open, barely loses and is probably the best player on the planet at the moment) and Jakub Mensik, a huge serving supremely talented prospect from the Czech Republic.

That’s the end of the list. His break rate may be down to start the year on hard courts relative to the last two seasons, but he’s holding serve at an eye-watering rate of over 90% and his return points won percentage is still at the same level as years past.

I actually think eye test-wise he’s been pretty decent on return and improving.

With that said, he does tend to lack the dynamism of some of the other top guys, and that is what holds him back from making the top 3 or top 5 in the rankings.

The serve and forehand are sensational, the movement is strong and the backhand is decent, but it’s a baseline-heavy game, and there isn’t a lot of variety. In other words, he can be a bit predictable.

I’m a big fan of the way Rublev continues to solidify his position on tour, but I suppose my point here is that I don’t think that he’s among the elite or the most dominant and as a result the price tag is a little expensive in this match.

Alexander Bublik Recent Form

Perhaps Bublik has turned a new leaf in 2024. Usually, we’re accustomed to seeing the big Kazakh make a few runs a season and then play haphazard, somewhat lazy tennis in his opening rounds for large swathes of the rest of it.

This season, however, he’s already made a semifinal in Adelaide, won a title in Montpellier and now another semifinal (at least in Dubai).

It makes sense, as when he’s engaged, he’s one of the better players on tour. He moves more efficiently than most that are his height, still possesses the massive serve that comes with being tall, can hit through the forehand wing nicely and he has great hands, allowing him to be an effective player at the net as well.

With all that considered, and the likelihood of him fooling around and not taking a match seriously this deep into a tournament relatively low, giving him odds that correspond with probabilities in the 25% range to win the match is disrespectful.

Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Bublik H2H – Stat of the Match

This is one of the times where the head-to-head kind of supports the bet in a way, but I still think context is important. Rublev leads Bublik 4-2, but four of those matches took place over three years ago.

In the two encounters since the start of the 2023 season, they’ve gone 1-1 against one another, with both matches going the distance (a three-set match in Halle and a five-setter at Wimbledon).

I think that is a tad indicative of what I’ve outlined above. When Bublik is engaged, his serve is far too strong, he’s far too athletic and he possesses the variety to play with anyone on the men’s circuit.

Rublev has a strong game in his own right, but it’s relatively straightforward and there’s no way you’ll convince me that he’s this dominant a favourite in this matchup.

Throw in the fact that it’s a semifinal match and we’re far less likely to see a lackadaisical performance from Bublik (something he is prone to do) and I’m happy to back this price.

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SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.