Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger Aliassime Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 30th

The third preview of the day delves into Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger Aliassime from the Mutua Madrid Open. We’re into the 2nd week of the ATP Masters 1000 Mutua Madrid Open. Can Ruud continue his dominance on the clay this year? Or will the Canadian pick up his best win of his run in the Spanish capital?

Auger Aliassime’s win probability is just 25.8% while Ruud is favoured to win at 1.30 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 22.

Our Ruud vs Auger Aliassime prediction is that Ruud will win, but there isn’t much value in the match.

In this article:

• Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger Aliassime Prediction
• Casper Ruud Recent Form
• Felix Auger Aliassime Recent Form
• Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger Aliassime H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

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Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger Aliassime (Mutua Madrid Open) Prediction: Big Proving Ground for Auger Aliassime Against Elite Dirtballer

It has to be said that Auger Aliassime is playing his best tennis in a long time over the last week, but considering who he’s beaten and how he won his last match, I think there’s still room to question whether he’s really raised his level to where we know it can be, or if the success is a byproduct of who he’s played.

Ruud, meanwhile, has been on fire this clay season. He reached the final in Monte Carlo and then won the title in Barcelona – the biggest to date in his career. His game has looked better than ever and he’s once again deep in a big event on the dirt.

There’s certainly a chance that Auger Aliassime can keep proceedings close with a strong serving day in the altitude of Madrid, but he may struggle otherwise.

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Casper Ruud Recent Form

Since being ousted from the Australian Open in the third round, Ruud has only failed to reach the quarterfinal of a tournament once (in the quicker conditions of Miami). Clay season has been even kinder to him, with his record to date sitting at 13-2.

The topspin on his forehand has always made him more effective on the surface, but the added aggression this year on both the serve and forehand have made him a much more potent offensive player and less vulnerable on serve.

It’s meant that he’s now much better at sticking with more powerful servers who may be redlining against him.

The narrative that he is a 250 merchant was put to rest in Barcelona, and that was good to see not just because it was a lazy narrative, but also because the improvements he’s made were deserving of a bigger title.

I’m not certain that I’d pay a 1.80 price point to get to the -3.5 games, which is where the handicap is at currently, but if I was forced to choose a side, I certainly think the natural surface advantage he possesses, along with the improved offensive game and far superior defensive prowess make the Norwegian the side to be on.

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Felix Auger Aliassime Recent Form

If you would’ve told me that Auger Aliassime would turn his season around – at least in terms of wins and losses – on the dirt, I wouldn’t have believed you.

That’s what he’s done in recent weeks, though. He’s 5-1 between Munich and Madrid, and even with the lighter quality of competition, I think that the momentum and confidence are certainly needed for the 23-year-old.

He’d dropped out of the top-30 and he doesn’t have a whole lot of time to regain a few of those positions to be seeded at Roland Garros.

Now, let’s address the elephant in the room. A lot of those wins haven’t been the most impressive. We discussed why in Monday’s preview of his match (available over on the expert insights page). His match against Jakub Mensik was a dominant one, but ended early as Mensik retired and was far from 100% in the latter stages of the first set.

Still, this is a big chance for Auger Aliassime to find a quality win.

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Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger Aliassime H2H – Stat of the Match

These two haven’t played in a few years, but Ruud leads the all time series 4-2 and has won each of the last three matches, including a straight sets win in Madrid a few years back.

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Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.