Casper Ruud vs Fabio Fognini Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, July 3rd

Our previews from the men’s draw at Wimbledon continue on Wednesday as we look at another matchup that the markets expect to be fairly lopsided. Let’s look a bit more at Casper Ruud vs Fabio Fognini.

Fognini’s win probability is just above 20%, while Ruud is favoured to win at 1. odds. The handicap is six games and the total games line is 36.

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Our Ruud vs Fognini prediction is for Fognini to push the clay courter.

Casper Ruud vs Fabio Fognini (Wimbledon) Prediction: Teaser

• Prediction: Over 3.5 Sets & Fognini to win the 1st set
• Best Odds: 1.83 & 3.20
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle & bet365
• Stakes: 2/10 & 1/10

Odds as at 4:00 am UK Time on July 3rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Another day, another big underdog I’m looking to push his match into at least a fourth set with.

At 37, Fognini certainly isn’t the player he once was, but thanks to a swift victory in the opening round against young Frenchman Luca van Assche, along with a day off, he should be more than capable of pushing Ruud.

I’m not going to say the only reason to oppose Ruud is because he’s no fan of grass courts. That’s true to a certain extent, but alone it’s not enough to bet against him.

We’ll go over what Fognini does well that should translate to grass courts in just a minute, but he’s probably better than his record would indicate, considering some of the players that have beaten him (in fairly tight matches).

Casper Ruud Recent Form

One of the best clay courters in the world for the RPM he generates on his groundstrokes, Ruud’s game isn’t exactly made for the lower bouncing grass courts. As a result, the Norwegian has elected to rest up and skip the entire lead-in schedule to The Championships at the All England Club each of the last two seasons.

In 2023, he fell at this stage to Liam Broady in five sets, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same result this season against Fognini. Now, the Italian is also someone that probably prefers the red clay under his feet, but we’ll discuss in a minute why he has the tools necessary to be competitive on the lawns as well.

To Ruud’s credit, he has improved his service game and added more power to his arsenal, accompanying that topspin heavy game. That means he does possess a bit more to help him on these courts, yet the decision to skip the warmup tournaments was made once more this year.

Perhaps this is a round too early to oppose the world No. 8, who did a nice job sending Alex Bolt packing in the first round, but when I see someone with the requisite skills to be competitive at these types of odds, I generally like to get involved.

Fabio Fognini Recent Form

Fognini hasn’t had all that much success in his last few seasons on the grass courts. A lot of that, however, has to do with some of the opposition he’s drawn in the early stages of some tournaments.

Going back to 2021, Fognini has lost just four matches on the grass. One was a loss to Marin Cilic by a single break of serve margin, another to Andrey Rublev at Wimbledon a few years ago as a huge underdog and that match saw him take a set,  and then last year he lost to Tallon Griekspoor – another good fast court player. That match also saw Fognini snag a set.

Finally, he lost in one of the warmup tournaments for Wimbledon to young sensation Jakub Mensik in a tight third set. Mensik has plenty of weapons and can hold his own on quicker surfaces.

Fognini has an underrated serve, can dial up some pace on his groundstrokes, but it’s his shotmaking and touch that make him sneaky on these courts.

Further, he has a compact backhand that can really hit through the ball and that should be an advantage on a quicker court, where Ruud’s backhand tends to be rushed more often, forcing him to leave a lot of balls short and ready to attack.

If Fognini is motivated, healthy and looking to make one last run at Wimbledon, he should have his chances to do so come Thursday.

Casper Ruud vs Fabio Fognini H2H – Stat of the Match

Ruud has won all three meetings between these two in straight sets. It’s been a few years and all came on clay, which isn’t saying a whole lot, considering it’s the preferred surface of each of them.

Without too much tennis in his legs from the opening round, I would think Fognini should be able to push Ruud and he certainly has the variety, touch and backhand to do just that.

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