Elena Rybakina vs Madison Keys Prediction, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/25/24

The second preview to get the new week going is from the WTA side of things from the Miami Open as well. Let’s preview the big-serving Elena Rybakina vs Madison Keys contest. Keys’ win probability comes in at 30.1% while Rybakina is favored to win at 1.39 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 21.5.

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Rybakina vs Keys Prediction: World No. 4 on Upset Alert in What Could be Close, Big Hitting Tilt

• Prediction: Keys to win
• Best Odds: 3.28
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as of 2:45 am UK Time on March 25th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Whether it’s something still bothering her physically, or simply a bit of a regression as a player who simply lacks a bit of dynamism, I continue to be fairly underwhelmed by the performances Rybakina has been putting forth of late (she’s not alone in that department by the way, just ask her fellow top-3 player in Aryna Sabalenka). The tennis just hasn’t been as inspiring or dominant since she won the title back in Brisbane to start her year.

Keys hasn’t played a whole lot, but she’s got a booming serve, which on its own merits should keep her pretty close in this match.

With Rybakina not the fleetest of foot, if Keys can play with decent controlled aggression with her first serve and first forehand combinations, she should find a preponderance of cheap points, and thus, cheap service holds.

That alone means there’s at least a bit of value in backing her at an implied probability of around 30%.

Elena Rybakina Recent Form

Despite what I said above, the Kazakh star has still managed to post an impeccable 19-3 record to start her year.

Now, context is key, and it’s almost as though there have been two parts to her season. The first part saw her win the title in Brisbane, suffer a shock defeat in Melbourne, and then rebound by winning Abu Dhabi and making the final in Doha. In that time span, we saw her dominate nearly a dozen opponents.

Since Dubai, however, she’s got a very nice 4-0 record, but has picked up an injury, missed Indian Wells, and failed to cover a game handicap, needing three sets in every win (the victory against Victoria Azarenka came after two sets, but via retirement and a third set would’ve been played otherwise).

Whether the issue that forced her withdrawal from Dubai and Indian Wells is still nagging at her, or she’s simply struggling on return enough to allow lesser players to keep things close, Rybakina is far from her best right now and I’ll look to exploit that before the market catches up.

Madison Keys Recent Form

Keys has problems of her own when it comes to form. Mainly that there isn’t much of it to parse through or dissect.

She started her season a few weeks ago in California, beating her countrywoman Hailey Baptiste, before running out of gas against the tough, defensive-minded Yulia Putintseva.

This week, we’ve seen her capture a pair of impressive straight sets wins, in which she’s been broken just twice combined. More importantly, I believe the market has mispriced her in these conditions, where her serve alone, along with powerful baseline game and pedigree on quick courts makes her a legitimate threat.

I won’t complain though, I’ll happily take her against anyone in the women’s game to win at a 30% clip.

If she plays a smart match and doesn’t get too trigger-happy going for her shots, she can exploit the mediocre movement of the tall Rybakina and potentially force a few tiebreaks which are fairly close to coin flips.

Elena Rybakina vs Madison Keys H2H – Stat of the Match

These two had quite the rivalry back in 2022. They played three times, with each of those matches coming in somewhat big events.

Keys won in a third-set tiebreak on clay at Roland Garros. That was on a different surface, and such a close affair makes that one relatively meaningless.

They then split the hard court matches, with Keys crushing Rybakina in Cincinnati and Rybakina returning the favor in Ostrava.

Not sure there’s much relevance in matches from nearly two years ago, but it is potentially worth considering.

As for the elo ratings here, Keys’ has taken a bit of a dip, but still comes in at a respectable 1,779. Rybakina is in the top 3, and that’s no surprise based on her track record over the last little while. As I said though, in the last four matches she’s played, she hasn’t looked like that player.

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