tennis | Wednesday, April 24, 2024 8:06 AM

Daria Saville vs Hailey Baptiste Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, 4/24/24

Jon Reid

It’s a busy day on the WTA side of things from the Mutua Madrid Open, with over 20 tennis matches to take place to finish off the opening round of play. That’s why we have yet another preview from the women’s singles draw in Daria Saville vs Hailey Baptiste. Jon Reid’s Saville vs Baptiste prediction is available below!

Baptiste’s win probability is only 40% while Saville is favored to win at 1.53 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Saville vs Baptiste Prediction: Value with the Underdog

Prediction: Baptiste to win
Best Odds: 2.50
Bookmaker: Bet365
Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 1:45 am UK Time on April 24th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

bet with bet365I have no problem backing players in back-to-back matches in the same week when they win the first time around. To me, it signals that my read that they’re undervalued by the market is accurate and that, for the most part, these kinds of bets will profit in the long term.

We backed her on Tuesday (you can read that preview over on the expert insights page) and she cruised through her final qualifying match. I don’t want to overreact to one match, but it was a sensational performance and confirmed the fact that her game translates to clay, especially in altitude, where things play a little quicker and more to what she may be used to.

Saville does have her path to victory, with her ability to elicit unforced errors, but having her win this well over 60% of the time? That is a stretch. Our Saville vs Baptiste prediction is for Baptiste to win.

Daria Saville Recent Form

Saville does have four wins so far this season on the clay. Now, three of them have come on the green Har Tru clay in the United States, she also lost in qualifying here and is only in the main draw as a lucky loser (to a decent server as well, which she’ll play again on Wednesday).

Again, I don’t want to overreact to one match, but this contest should be on Baptiste’s racquet as Saville will look to defend and wait out mistakes, and the cheap points will be far tougher for her to come by than for her American counterpart.

She’s also more of a hard courter, playing far more often when she can on that surface and though her defensive skills play across surfaces, I certainly wouldn’t give her the surface edge over her opponent in this one either.

Hailey Baptiste Recent Form

Went over a lot of what I like about Baptiste’s game in yesterday’s preview. The serve is excellent and should generate free points in the altitude in Madrid (she didn’t face a break point in her win against Rebecca Sramkova, though she’s not nearly the returner Saville is), she can dictate with her forehand, and her slice and drop shot game add another dimension to her game and give her more ways to win points.

The errors and her less-than-stellar attitude on the court at times are what has held her back the most from achieving a higher ranking than her current No. 110, but this isn’t a match where she should have too much trouble if she can remain patient and wait for her opportunity to finish points.

The offensive capabilities dwarf those of her opponent and even if Saville can find a few breaks of serve, Baptiste should surely find plenty of chances herself to crack the Aussie’s serve. The American has played her best tennis since that ugly first set in qualifying, let’s see if she can keep things rolling in her first-round match.

Daria Saville vs Hailey Baptiste H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two. For me, the stat to keep an eye on is who can land more of their first serves.

Though Saville may not find many cheap points when she does make the first serve, she won’t see the point completely turn against her as she’s likely to see happen with her second serve.

Baptiste may find far more cheap points when she lands her first delivery, but she hasn’t done so nearly enough this season and she’s backed up her second serves at a higher rate than Saville, but still has lost the majority of those points. If Baptiste can land those first serves with any kind of regularity, she should be in control of the proceedings.

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