Tristan Schoolkate vs Guy den Ouden Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/1/24

As we wait for the ATP Shanghai Masters first-round matchups to be priced up to bet, we’ll stick with the Challenger Tour for Tuesday’s previews.

The first comes from the Tiburon Challenger as we look at Tristan Schoolkate vs Guy den Ouden.

Den Ouden’s win probability is just 40%, as he enters as the favorite at 1.54 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 22.

Our Schoolkate vs den Ouden prediction is for Schoolkate to cover the handicap.

Tristan Schoolkate vs Guy den Ouden Prediction: Schoolkate Far Too Strong for Clay Courter

• Prediction: Schoolkate -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds updated at 2:00 am UK Time on October 1st, 2024.

Much like we turned to Mark Lajal in a matchup against a clay courter in which he had the significant surface edge and a handicap that didn’t reflect it, we’ll do the same with Schoolkate on Tuesday.

Now, this is an outdoor hard court tournament and is taking place across the world, but considering how much stronger Schoolkate is on hard courts than his Dutch counterpart, while also possessing enough consistency to stick with den Ouden in the longer baseline exchanges, I find it hard to justify this handicap being as low as three games.

More tennis previews are up over on the expert insights page.

Tristan Schoolkate Recent Form

Perhaps the up-and-down nature of Schoolkate’s form has made the market a tad apprehensive about making him a large favorite, but a glance at who he’s lost to should calm the nerves.

Bu Yunchaokete has been on fire all summer and that has kept going at tour level the last few weeks, Jakub Mensik is one of the rising stars on the main tour, and Learner Tien is one of the top juniors out there and is already knocking on the door of the top-150 at 18 and I could go on. The lone shocking loss came at the hands of Patrick Zharaj. Other than that, Schoolkate has taken care of business against players you’d expect him to beat.

I’m not sure what exactly den Ouden does better than him on a hard court and much like the match on Monday from France that was previewed, I’d have this handicap at a margin that represents two breaks of serve, thus at least a -4.

Guy den Ouden Recent Form

It’s been a great season for den Ouden on the clay, with the 22-year-old having just won a Challenger in Bulgaria a few weeks ago. Now, that was a Challenger 50 – the level of tournaments with the fewest number of points and least amount of money on offer – and had rankings restrictions on who could enter, but it’s an impressive feat nonetheless.

On hard courts, however, he hasn’t won a main draw match since January, has won just a few matches all year, and has struggled to generate much offense.

He’s only won seven main draw matches on the Challenger circuit all season across surfaces, with five of them at that lower-end Challenger in Dobrich that he won.

He’s been incredible at the ITF Tour level, but making the jump has proven to be difficult.

Tristan Schoolkate vs Guy den Ouden H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first encounter between the two.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.