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Mixed martial arts Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Rome, Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Shevchenko
Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Shevchenko Best Bet: Friday, May 12th
Fabian Marozsan got there in the end, but he did blow a lead in the second set against a clearly hampered Corentin Moutet and it wasn’t as easy as it probably should have been.
For Friday, we’ll take a look at the match between Sebastian Baez and Alexander Shevchenko.
In this article:
Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Shevchenko Preview
May 12th, 11:30 (UK Time)
Despite losing earlier in the week, Shevchenko found his way into the main draw via a lucky loser spot thanks to a late withdrawal freeing up a place for someone that lost in the final round of qualifying.
We wrote up the Shevchenko match against Arthur Fils, whose power simply proved to be too much for the Russian, as he dropped the first set and couldn’t hold onto his break lead against the teenage sensation from France that is taking the tennis world by storm month by month.
Now he gets another tough – albeit different – test in Baez.
The diminutive Argentinian is a mainstay on the ATP Tour in clay-court events. While he doesn’t possess an abundance of power on either his serve or groundstrokes, the 22-year-old works the ball around the court incredibly well, forces you to play a lot of balls and does have the ability to play aggressive tennis on his forehand so he’s not simply reliant on his opposition to lose the match. Even without booming power, he backs up his first serve at a decent clip as well.
That said, the man who uses this portion of the calendar to boost his ranking hasn’t been that great so far during the European clay swing (it’s worth noting that he did win a title on home soil in Cordoba in the South American clay swing back in February).
He’s won just four times in five events, with all those wins coming against players that aren’t at their best on the surface, or guys that find themselves on the Challenger Tour more often than not.
Now, that description fits Shevchenko, but he’s on the ascent, has weapons from the baseline and is likely to be more of a tour regular in the near future.
Though he doesn’t have the name recognition or pedigree of some of the guys that have beaten Baez in the last few weeks, he does like playing on the clay, he’s in form and he does have the weapons that it takes to typically hit through both the slower surface and the defences of his opponent.
Sebastian Baez vs Alexander Shevchenko Best Bet
The biggest hang up people will have here is likely to be the fact that Shevchenko just lost to Fils on clay and is now playing a more established and more natural clay courter.
That’s fair and a logical line of thought, but he’s also gone from a multiple-game favourite on the handicap to a substantial underdog here.
I also think the way he matches up with Baez will be much more to his liking. Where he struggled with Fils’ power, Baez doesn’t have the natural ability to push him back, keep him on the back foot and take that time away from him.
The chances on return should be a bit more within reach for him and he’s much more likely to play the front-foot tennis he enjoys.
I’m not going to lose faith in him just yet and I think that a break even percentage of under 40% is a bit harsh in this one.
- Selection: Shevchenko to win
- Best Odds: 2.63 (Bet365)
- Stakes: 3/10
Odds as at 5:00 am on May 12th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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