tennis | Sreda, Januar 11, 2023 1:33 PM (Revised at: Sreda, Januar 11, 2023 2:06 PM)

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Australian Open Qualifying, Sebastian Ofner vs Laurent Lokoli

Jon Reid

Sebastian Ofner vs Laurent Lokoli Best Bet: Wednesday, January 11th

Have to be happy with Tuesday’s pair of selections from the men’s events. Zizou Bergs came close to choking away his lead (he was up early in the second set), but ended up closing things out in three sets. Jenson Brooksby, on the other hand, led 6-1 and was cruising when Diego Schwartzman injured himself in the opening game of the second set and retired, voiding that selection.

Onto Wednesday, where we’ll preview a match from the one event where we’re certain that players will be playing with the utmost motivation – the final qualifying round of the Australian Open. For our selection on Wednesday, let’s break down the tilt between Sebastian Ofner and Laurent Lokoli.

In this article:

Sebastian Ofner vs Laurent Lokoli Preview
Sebastian Ofner vs Laurent Lokoli Best Bet

Sebastian Ofner vs Laurent Lokoli Preview

January 12th, 00:30 (UK Time)

I feel the first thing that should be said when previewing the matchup here is that Lokoli has been incredibly impressive since the start of the 2022 season. He’s done it all the right way, winning a boatload of matches at the ITF level and fighting tooth and nail to move up the rankings. That has allowed him to get into Challenger Tour main draws, as well as the qualifying draw for the Australian Open.

That said, I’m not sure he should be nearly a pick ‘em against the big serving and big-hitting Ofner.

The Austrian is far closer to competing at the main tour level than Lokoli and his game earns him far more free points with his serve and first-strike tennis. That puts the Frenchman behind the eight ball with a gap to close right from the hop.

Lokoli’s defensive play of late has been elite, but the quality of players he’s beaten must also be taken into account when trying to price up this contest.

His run to the Noumea Challenger final included a strong win over Hugo Grenier in three sets, but he also received a walkover in the semifinals and eventually lost to Raul Brancaccio – who has improved on hard courts but is still far from being at the top level on the surface.

It’s been so-far-so-good in Melbourne as well, but he’s beaten a fellow grinder and defensive-minded player in Li Tu, and a serve-and-volley type, whose game outside of his first serve is incredibly underwhelming in Antoine Bellier.

I’m far from being sold on his strong start to the 2023 campaign and having had Ofner as one of the two or three favourites to reach the main draw from this section when the qualifying draw was released, I’m happy to back him to finish the job.

Sebastian Ofner vs Laurent Lokoli Best Bet

I do think the 28-year-old Lokoli’s surge over the course of the past 12 months or so warrants some level of respect, but I still have this price on Ofner closer to the 1.57 to 1.61 range.

That is quite a significant difference with where the current price point is in the betting markets, which leads me to believe that this wager is worth a fairly aggressive stake.