Ben Shelton vs Juncheng Shang Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 25th

Our second preview from the ATP Tour for Thursday comes from the Atlanta Open in what could be the match of the day from the 250 on American soil. It’s Ben Shelton vs Juncheng Shang. Our Shelton vs Shang prediction and betting picks are available below. 

Shang’s win probability is just under 40%, while Shelton is favoured to win at 1.61 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 23.5.

Ben Shelton vs Juncheng Shang Prediction: Expect Close Match Between Two Strong Southpaws

• Predictions: 1st Set Over 12.5 Games & Shang to win
• Best Odds: 3.05 & 2.46
• Bookmaker: Unibet & Pinnacle
• Stakes: 1/10 & 2/10

Odds updated at 4:30 am UK Time on July 25th, 2024. 

These two both tend to play longer matches. The reason? For Shelton, it’s the subpar return game that tends to keep things tight. Good luck breaking his serve, though.

For Shang, it’s the patches of play that tend to be error prone that sometimes cost him a set. He’s tough to dominate though since he plays a well rounded game, has a sneaky strong serve and can do most things pretty well, meaning he’s almost always competitive.

Throw in courts that tend to play pretty quickly and I’m inclined to think more sets go long than not in this all-lefty matchup. My Shelton vs Shang prediction is for the match to go three sets and for Shang to win.

If you want more tennis previews, be sure to head on over to the expert insights section.

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Ben Shelton Recent Form

As fun as the world No. 14 is to watch, I’m not certain he’s worthy of the consistent heavy favourite status the market affords him.

He’s had an okay year, but a good chunk of his points earned this year have come from winning a 250 on quick clay against a traditionally weak field in Houston and a fourth round appearance at Wimbledon. Each of his three wins in London required five sets though, and he needed more than the minimum number of sets to win matches the majority of the time this year.

So not only is the win-loss record underwhelming at 23-15 for someone with his talent and ranking, but even those 23 wins have been shaky performances at times.

Until I see an improved return game and smarter approach to point construction, I’m going to continue believing he’s going to struggle to dominate matches, and thus, is going to be much less of a favourite in my books than the markets believe.

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Juncheng Shang Recent Form

Firmly inside the top-100 now and likely to achieve a new career high ranking on Monday if he can defeat Shelton, we’re starting to see the reason the young gun was billed as a future star a few years ago.

Though he doesn’t possess elite, raw power in his baseline game, he’s not underpowered either and can strike a pretty clean ball. He moves around the court well and when it’s not leaking errors, his backhand is a legitimate weapon.

He can flatten out his groundstrokes or play with more shape when called for and it’s just hard to find ways past him on court.

As he continues to tighten up his game, he’ll continue to rise up the rankings. We’re seeing his game look strong now on quicker surfaces, as he gets even more purchase out of his serve and groundstrokes when in attack. With a decent grass season and three wins to start his summer hard court swing here have certainly helped him build some form.

I wouldn’t expect this one to be an easy bet to cash (after all, he is the underdog), but with how talented he is, how quickly the courts tend to play and how much Shelton can struggle to dominate matches, I’m pretty confident that this price is worth playing.

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Ben Shelton vs Juncheng Shang H2H – Stat of the Match

Shang has won both prior meetings, with each of them on hard courts and the first coming at this tournament last year. It’s not the cornerstone of a handicap, but having the edge in prior meetings is a welcome complement to the rest of the handicap.

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