Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction, Odds, H2H, Stats and Form 3/29/24

It’s semifinal Friday for the ATP side of the draw at the Miami Open! After the WTA locked in their two finalists on Thursday, the men take center stage to wrap up the work week. Let’s look at our Sinner vs Medvedev prediction and see who you should back to move onto the final. Medvedev’s win probability is only 36.4% while Sinner is favored to win at 1.44 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Sinner vs Medvedev Prediction: Defending Champion Undervalued in Semifinal Tilt

• Prediction: Medvedev to win
• Best Odds: 2.75
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 1:15 am UK Time on March 29th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I do believe that having Sinner over 60% to win is a tad disrespectful to Medvedev though. I am not going to make the case that this should be a toss-up, but Medvedev has proven he can deal with Sinner in the past, and barring the best-of-five format and the fatigue that sent in from all the tennis he played, I think it was clear he would’ve won that match in Australia.

Though the courts and conditions here may favor Sinner a bit more than Australia, I don’t think he’s as decisive a favorite as the market is making him out to be. Our Sinner vs Medvedev prediction is for Medvedev to win at 2.75 odds.

Jannik Sinner Recent Form

There is no tennis player in the world in better form than Sinner. The ball striking, now-elite serve and his opposition’s inability to beat him are the reasons he’s such a large favorite.

Even against the best players in the world, Sinner has held up and put most of them away. Now, Medvedev did fade physically in that final, and Rublev just doesn’t have the game to break through into the elite tier of players with the likes of Medvedev, Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Carlos Alcaraz, but the Sinner wins over the last two names on that list were pretty impressive victories.

Has he looked a bit more vulnerable on serve this week than we’ve been accustomed to? Yes, but that doesn’t mean he’s weak on serve and probably just serves as a bit of regression. Nothing to oppose him over on its own merits. Looking for a reason to oppose Sinner is likely a fool’s errand at this point.

This handicap is much more about backing Medvedev and trusting his ability to play right up to the same level (though in a much different way) as Sinner.

Daniil Medvedev Form

At 18-3 on the year, it’s hard to argue with the fact that Medvedev has been great in the first hard court season in 2024. Has he been as dominant as he was this time last year? No. He’s lost plenty of sets and had others where he should have lost, but simply ground his opponents down and coaxed them into making nervy mistakes (see: Nicolas Jarry in the second set tiebreak last round).

Nevertheless, he has elite rally tolerance, will not be outlasted physically and his first serve is one of the best in the men’s game. To keep this simple, anytime you offer me odds of over 2.50 on a hard court to back Medvedev, I’m going to take them. Against anyone, Alcaraz and Djokovic included. He’s competed with the best, beaten the best and his comfort and game style are elite on hard courts.

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev H2H – Stat of the Match

This is one of the more fun series in recent times on the men’s circuit. Let’s take a look at the previous matchups through a few lenses.

Medvedev does lead his younger opponent 6-4 in their 10 meetings, but as always, context is key. The Italian has won each of the last four meetings, which means most would likely give him the edge.

Go one step further though, and think back to their last meeting. It was the Australian Open final and Medvedev had the perfect gameplan that day to square off with Sinner. He led by two sets and appeared to have baffled the youngster. Though he lost the match, a lot of that is likely due to being on the court as long as any other player who had ever reached the final in Melbourne in the matches leading into the final. He won’t be nearly as tired on Friday.

There’s no doubt that Sinner has the talent advantage here. The question is, how much does Medvedev’s defending, stamina, and first serve close that gap? For me, it’s enough to believe that he shouldn’t be valued at below 40% to win the match.

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