Lorenzo Sonego vs Richard Gasquet Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, 4/25/24

Another match second on the court from the Mutua Madrid Open is Lorenzo Sonego vs Richard Gasquet from the first round of the ATP singles draw. Our Sonego vs Gasquet prediction is available below!

Gasquet is given just a 35.6% chance to win by the betting markets, whereas Sonego is favored to win at 1.49 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 23.

Sonego vs Gasquet Prediction: Veteran Gasquet to Keep Strong Week Going

• Prediction: Gasquet to win
• Best Odds: 2.81
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 1:15 am UK Time on April 25th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

This is a bit of an odd side to take for me, simply because for most of the season, I’ve been higher on Sonego than the market and lower on Gasquet than the market.

Yet in a strange turn of events, this time around, I like Gasquet in this head-to-head encounter. A few reasons for this.

First, with the thinner air and playing at altitude, Gasquet’s dwindling power in his late 30s isn’t nearly as pronounced.

Second, I think we have a fairly large edge here in the point construction and tennis IQ departments.

Throw in Sonego often struggling for long stretches with his ability to find the range from the baseline and his less-than-stellar return game and you’ve got a recipe for a close match that makes 2.81 look like an appetizing price. Our Sonego vs Gasquet prediction is for Gasquet to win.

More previews for all the action from Madrid are up over on our Expert Insights page.

---

Lorenzo Sonego Recent Form

The 28-year-old may not be playing his best tennis in 2024, but I do think he has played a bit better than his 7-13 record would suggest. I could lean into that number to build the narrative that he’s overvalued, but he has close losses to very good players like Daniil Medvedev, Carlos Alcaraz, Grigor Dimitrov, and Sebastian Korda, while also looking pretty fatigued in another loss to Roberto Bautista Agut.

Some of his struggles have been products of tough situations and draws.

I wouldn’t say he’s played his best tennis either, though. When clicking, his serve and forehand can keep him close to anyone in the game. The problem is that the forehand loses the range a bit too often and his backhand can be broken down and is seldom used as a weapon when playing attacking tennis.

I wouldn’t say he’s the most adept at constructing points, looking to open space by moving his opponents around with planned groundstrokes, giving himself a chance to play high-percentage tennis hitting through an open court.

That means he has a high-octane game that can be potent, but he also leaves himself with little margin for error.

---

Richard Gasquet Recent Form

Gasquet is another player who has looked all that great so far in 2024, and whose best tennis is probably behind him if we’re being honest.

He has been a bit better since mid-February though. He went to the final of a higher-end Challenger tournament, made the quarters of another on clay in Murcia, Spain, made use of his lucky loser spot in Estoril to reach the quarterfinals there, and looked strong against a pair of good Challenger Tour clay courters in qualifying this week.

What has been especially encouraging is that even in altitude, he’s found a way to find at least one break of serve in each of the four sets he’s played (he’ll need that against Sonego), and his service numbers have ticked up, with his first serve being particularly good.

Those abilities that I mentioned Sonego lacks? Those have always been clear strengths for the veteran Frenchman and should allow him to apply pressure to Sonego’s service games if he can find a rhythm against his serve and start points consistently.

---

Lorenzo Sonego vs Richard Gasquet H2H – Stat of the Match

Only two meetings between these two in the past, with each one of them winning once in straight sets. Those were back in 2018 though, and needless to say, they’re pretty meaningless.

Despite his poor record this season, I do think Sonego is the deserved favorite here, but with Gasquet’s ability to work the court and potentially outduel the Italian, along with the boost he should get from playing in altitude, I’m not sure he should be well below the 40% to win mark.

---

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.