tennis | Wednesday, May 17, 2023 7:33 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, May 17, 2023 7:34 AM)

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: WTA Rome, Stan Wawrinka vs Andy Murray

Jon Reid

Stan Wawrinka vs Andy Murray Best Bet: Wednesday, May 17th

No harm, no foul on the men’s bet on Tuesday, as Novak Djokovic beat Cameron Norrie by exactly five games. He did have a few points to win the first set 6-2, never trailed and found an early break in the second set that he gave back, so all in all, I’m happy with having backed him on the handicap.

For Wednesday, let’s head down to the Challenger level and look at the matchup between Stan Wawrinka and Andy Murray – just the second-ever match at this level between two former Grand Slam champions!

In this article:

Stan Wawrinka vs Andy Murray Preview
Stan Wawrinka vs Andy Murray Best Bet

Stan Wawrinka vs Andy Murray Preview

May 16th, 16:30 (UK Time)

The last time Murray played one of these big Challenger 175 events in France…he won it! Surely we should be backing him here as an underdog then, right?

Not so fast, my friends.

Murray did win the Aix-en-Provence Challenger during the second week of the Madrid Masters, but he didn’t look that strong en route to the title.

He blew match points and was pushed for almost three hours against Laurent Lokoli, almost blew a 6-2 lead to Luca van Assche and played an hour-long second set, then was played extremely close by a third Frenchman in Harold Mayot in a straight-sets victory. Finally, American Tommy Paul dominated him in the opening set, before falling apart down the stretch in the final.

None of those guys possess the clay-court pedigree, weight of shot, power or comfort on clay courts that Wawrinka does.

Murray has also looked suspect at best in all his other clay matches to this point in the season.

He lost to a Challenger Tour level player in Andrea Vavassori in Madrid, Fabio Fognini in his first match since injuring his foot in Rome (and was hurt in that match as well) and he was crushed in Monte Carlo by Alex de Minaur.

Now he takes on what is possibly his toughest test on clay so far in 2023 and he’s only a small underdog? That doesn’t seem right to me.

Stan Wawrinka vs Andy Murray Best Bet

For me, the value of this is fairly evident.

My numbers have Wawrinka winning this match well over 60% of the time and the current price has him around the 56% level in terms of implied probabilities.

I’m happy to stake out a rather large position behind the veteran clay-court aficionado from Switzerland.