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Mixed results on Tuesday’s bets from the ATP action in Cincinnati. The game overs came in nicely, as Hubert Hurkacz and Thanasi Kokkinakis both struggled mightily to break each other’s serve in a three-set contest. The two underdog wagers to win, however, both lost. The bright side is they both made it to a third and deciding set and were more competitive than the odds suggested.
For Wednesday’s tennis preview from the Western & Southern Open, let’s look at Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ben Shelton.
In this article:
Shelton has struggled a bit this year since the Australian swing acclimating to life on tour at the top level, but this particular matchup played on these courts is one I’m willing to back him in.
The prices on several markets are all showing value by my numbers, so I’ll look to spread a large stake across several different bets to try and mitigate some of the risk.
Read on for more expert insights.
Since reaching the quarterfinals of the French Open, it’s been a relatively rough go for the world No. 4. The caveat is the recent title the week before the Masters 1000 in Toronto on slow hard courts in Los Cabos, Mexico.
He had a poor run-in on grass to Wimbledon, and even his wins at the All England Club were far from convincing.
Last week on courts a bit more suited to his game, Tsitsipas suffered a surprise loss in his opening match to Gael Monfils.
While he’s had success at this event in the past, once again, the quality of the wins comes into question, while he’s also had appearances that have seen him ousted from Cincinnati rather quickly.
Considering he can be vulnerable to big servers on quicker courts, I’m not sold he should be a massive favourite in this spot.
It’s been a tough season for Shelton outside of his dream run to the quarterfinals in Melbourne.
He’s actually failed to win back-to-back matches since then at the ATP Tour level.
That said, the talent he possesses is undeniable. The 20-year-old has a booming lefty serve, huge forehand and raw athleticism that allows him to make some incredible shots.
After a slow start to the North American swing, Shelton has won two of three matches in Toronto and Cincinnati, with a comeback win over his countryman, the surging Chris Eubanks on Sunday night.
With quicker courts in play at this event, some of his weaknesses should be masked as well. His rally tolerance doesn’t necessarily need to be in top form and his lack of intent in constructing points can also be masked if he can keep them short in his service games.
No previous matches between these two, which shouldn’t be too surprising, considering the fact that Shelton is still pretty new on the scene.
To illustrate the matchup point I made earlier, my stat of the match for this one has to be Stefanos Tsitsipas’ return points won on hard courts this year.
At under 35%, he hasn’t been all that impressive on the whole. When you eliminate the results from slower courts in Los Cabos and Rotterdam where he eclipsed the 40% return points won mark in four of his six matches, that return points won metric becomes a bit more concerning.
Shelton struggles with the same thing, but I don’t mind seeing some close sets when I’ve backed the underdog at such nice odds and taken the over as well, in case the Shelton serve does hold as often as expected.
Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on August 16th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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