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After a few weeks with a slew of events to look at, the tours will spend the next month playing combined 1000-level events in Indian Wells and Miami.
The Sunshine Double is here, and we’ll get our previews going by looking at Storm Hunter vs Jaqueline Cristian in WTA qualifying from the BNP Paribas Open.
Cristian’s win probability is 45.5% while Hunter is favoured to win at 1.68 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 21.5.
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Our Hunter vs Cristian prediction is for Cristian to win.
In this article:
Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on March 4th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
I think if we were handicapping this match in Australia where conditions tend to be quicker and slicker, I’d agree with this price. That, however, isn’t the case. Not only are the courts slower in California, but they’re among the slowest hard courts you’ll find on tour.
That alters the handicap a fair amount. Cristian has more surface versatility for me, with less variance in her game as conditions change.
Hunter, on the other hand, comes from a country that tends to play on quicker courts, hits a flatter ball with a sneaky pace that is rewarded far more by lower bouncing courts and doesn’t possess the raw power to hit through the gritty hard courts here.
I’m happy to back Cristian knowing that in the long run, this is a profitable bet if it hits just 50% of the time..
The one-time doubles specialist who has started playing more singles events has had a pretty decent start to 2024. She qualified and reached the third round, nearly upsetting Barbora Krejcikova at her home grand slam down under and has also reached a final at a 125K event in Mumbai and then qualified for the main draw in Dubai.
Including qualifying matches, the Aussie is 11-3 to start her year. She may lack quality wins, but it’s worth keeping in mind that because of her singles rankings she’s not getting all that many opportunities to pick up signature victories to put the tennis world on notice.
The lefty serve and forehand combination are pretty strong and her flat hitting often helps her gain an edge on quicker courts.
Unfortunately for her, she won’t have that playing in her favour here. I’m anxious to see how she deals with the consistency of her Romanian opponent who plays with more rally tolerance in these slower environs.
After a poor start to her season in New Zealand and Australia, where she lost all three matches she played, the 25-year-old put her lucky loser spot in Linz to full use winning a main draw match and backed that up with a semifinal run on home soil in Cluj-Napoca.
I think the world No. 75 will be a bit disappointed at how often she’s lost the first match she’s played at an event in 2024, but she has a great chance to avoid doing that here.
Her strong consistency matches up well on these slow, higher bouncing courts and playing against someone who hits a flatter ball, she should be able to prolong more rallies than she would elsewhere and elicit a few more errors from the balls with lower net clearance coming back at her.
Cristian’s well-rounded game also means that the backhand shouldn’t be as vulnerable as it is for many righties, potentially negating one of the advantages of a lefty game for Sanders.
No prior matches to break down.
Statistically, the raw hard court elo ratings, as well as the blended, both like Hunter here. It’s probably the reason she’s the betting favourite in the match.
As always, context is key though, and it’s hard to really put a lot of trust in hard court data at this particular tournament with the conditions being so different from the vast majority of other hard court events.
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