Jan Lennard Struff vs Jaume Munar Prediction, Expert Picks, Stats, H2H, 4/26/24

Our lone men’s preview of Friday features Jan Lennard Struff vs Jaume Munar from the Mutua Madrid Open. There are some longer shots that intrigue (hello Borna Coric and Alexander Shevchenko), but last year’s finalist appears to be offering a tad more value. Our Struff vs Munar prediction is for Struff to cover the 2.5-game handicap.

Munar’s win probability is only 40.5% while Struff is favoured to win at 1.61 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Lennard Struff vs Munar Prediction: Struff’s Power Advantage to Trouble Munar

• Prediction: Struff -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.89
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 4:15 am UK Time on April 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Munar has had a tough history at this event, and I’d argue that it has a lot to do with the opposition he’s run into. Last year was his best appearance, making the fourth round before being beaten by Daniel Altmaier.

Before last year, he didn’t play in the tournament in 2022 and has lost by a fairly wide margin to Alex de Minaur and even a loss to the serve-oriented Marius Copil in the past.

I fear that he’s run into another big serving German this goes around, as last year’s finalist (as a lucky loser, no less) in Struff is on the other side of the net.

Struff has a big-time power edge, has displayed how well his game works here before, and is in form on the dirt so far in 2024. I have this handicap closer to three or 3.5 games than the 2.5 on offer at the moment.

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Jan Lennard Struff Recent Form

It’s been a pretty good few weeks for Struff, who has started 6-1 on the red dirt this season, reaching the final 16 in Monte Carlo losing to the best player of 2024 and then winning his maiden ATP Tour title in Munich, that included wins over strong players like Holger Rune (who did look somewhat disinterested on the day, admittedly) and Taylor Fritz.

Surprisingly, it took him as long as it did, considering how powerful the tall German’s game is, but the forehand has just gone errant in matches too often to sustain a lot of success.

I’m not sure he will reach the final again this season, but I do think that in these conditions he’ll be racking up far more easily than Munar is the more likely player to win by margin and find the breaks of serve.

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Jaume Munar Recent Form

After an expected poor run on hard courts, I’m sure Munar is ecstatic to be back on the clay, where he thrives.

As a player who relies a lot on spin, consistency, and point construction while being underpowered, he can struggle on courts that reward power. It may also be why he’s struggled in the past to make deep runs in Madrid, not just a Masters event that features better players, but the one big event played in altitude, which does tilt things towards players who can generate powerful serves.

So far, this clay season hasn’t gone to plan for Munar. Now 5-3 since Marrakech, the 26-year-old has lost to players not known for their clay prowess as a big favorite in Roman Safiullin in Monte Carlo and then Jordan Thompson in Barcelona. Those guys are both capable of generating decent pop on serve and Safiullin was able to simply hit through him and the slower conditions.

He’s also lacked any real strong wins to move the needle and has beaten a lot of opponents whose games are more prone to give him a bit more time to track balls down and really allow his solidity and defensive abilities to shine through.

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Jan Lennard Struff vs Jaume Munar H2H – Stat of the Match

Each of these guys has played over 450 professional matches on clay. They’ve both been tour regulars for years. Yet they’ve never played one another. One of the more wild head-to-head records (or lack thereof) that I’ve seen in tennis.

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