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Tennis | Friday, May 17, 2024 10:43 AM (Revised at: Friday, May 17, 2024 10:44 AM)

Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H - 5/18/24

Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H - 5/18/24
GONZALEZ OSCAR / Alamy Stock Photo: Aryna Sabalenka against Robin Montgomery

Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka have one match to play to decide which woman takes the Italian Open title in Rome. The World’s #1 & #2 players on the WTA Tour have secured that they will be the top seeds at the French Open, but a title is at stake on Saturday in the Italian Capital. Ej’s Swiatek vs Sabalenka prediction featuring odds at +300 is listed below.

Swiatek arrived at the WTA-1000 event as the favorite to win the Internazionali d’Italia after her win in Madrid, and she is the clear favorite in the final against Sabalenka.

Sabalenka has worked through her issues with her service game, and despite her challenges, she is still on the brink of her second title in 2024. 


  • Prediction: Swiatek 2 – 1 Sets Correct Score
  • Best Odds: +300
  • Bookmaker: Bwin
  • Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 8:00 am UK Time May 17, 2024. Odds may now differ.

It all comes down to this, and either Iga Swiatek or Aryna Sabalenka will be hoisting the hardware at the Italian Open on Saturday. 

I have made myself clear about my allegiance to Iga winning this WTA-1000 event in Rome, and that has not changed at all.

In addition to that, I have also not given Sabalenka her due because I have been nervous about that damn service game crap she puts us through. Aryna’s serve better be on point today because breaking Iga Swiatek in a final isn’t happening today.

I was amazed that Coco broke Iga right out of the gate yesterday, and despite going down 2 – 0 early in the opening frame, Swiatek won 6 of the next 8 games. We pushed our total from that match, and Coco did give Iga a game at 4 & 3 but Swiatek is simply the best women’s tennis player on this planet. 

These two have quite a history against each other, and I will get more into that below in the HTH section. With that said, Sabalenka has given Swiatek some great battles and their most recent match in the Madrid final was epic. 

Iga needed 3 sets to get past Aryna in the Madrid finale, and this match will be another classic battle for a title in Rome. The final looked like this in Madrid:  7 – 5, 4 – 6,  7 – 6.

Sabalenka and Swiatek broke each other right out of the gate in the opening set of that match, and at 5 – 5, Iga broke Aryna again before wrapping up the first set. Sabalenka had match point at 7 – 6 in the third set tie-break, so she was that close to taking down Swiatek in Madrid, 

Iga will win this instant classic in 3 sets, and I hope you like that price at +300 on the correct score 2 – 1 set prop bet.


Iga carries an 11-game win streak in the Rome Final, and she has only dropped a total of 2 sets along the way. One of those set losses came against Sabalenka in the Madrid final, and the other was a surprise upset from Elena Rybakina in Stuttgart.


Aryna is 10 – 1 in her last 11 clashes on clay, and that lone loss is to her opponent in the Rome final today.

Sabalenka has seemingly recovered from her early serving issues in Rome, and she looked in great shape against Collins with her straight-sets win in the semifinal.


This will be the 13th meeting between Sabalenka and Swiatek, and the World’s #1 has won 9 of those affairs. Sabalenka’s last win over Swiatek in the UAE last December, although that was only a one-set battle under special rules at the World Tennis League.


At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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