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Tennis | Wednesday, July 10, 2024 8:03 AM

Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 10th

Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, July 10th
Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo: Taylor Fritz of the United States plays a forehand return

It’s the second day of quarterfinals from Wimbledon, with Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev already having moved through to the final four in the men’s draw. Let’s look at Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti in our first preview for Wednesday’s action!

Musetti’s win probability is just 21%, while Fritz is favored to win at 1.23 odds. The handicap is five games and the total games line is 39.5.

Our Fritz vs Musetti prediction is for this to be a stylistic contrast that may see Musetti keep things close.

Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction: Musetti With Tools to Keep Things Close, but Will He?

I have been vocal about the fact that I believe that Musetti is very fortunate to be where he is at the moment and has been the beneficiary of some good luck throughout the grass court season.

That said, it’s really hard for me to trust Fritz against the Italian who has improved a bit for the grass, making his one-handed backhand less vulnerable and managing to hold his serve at a higher rate in the last few seasons than he had in the past.

Now, there is no doubt that Fritz is the bigger server and ball striker. That makes him the more dangerous player and as simplistic of a take as it sounds, it makes him the better grass courter. That doesn’t mean, however, that Musetti is hopeless.

Fritz isn’t all that strong on return and his movement is a glaring weakness on these courts that are playing even more slippery than they do most years. That means players who can work even underpowered groundstrokes around the court are going to be able to exploit his lack of foot speed and ensure he can’t catch up to the second or third groundstroke in a rally.

That’s where Musetti should be able to manufacture his holds of serve and the path to him potentially keeping things close.

That is just one matchup advantage, however, and considering his stats are way down this year on grass despite having a better record (we’ll go over that in a minute) I’m skeptical about backing him here.It’s another stay away for me.

We have more Wimbledon quarterfinals previews up over on the expert insights page.


Taylor Fritz Recent Form

Another Eastbourne title and a run to the second week of The Championships. Things have been good for Fritz, who had to come back from two sets down to beat a tough but injured, Alexander Zverev last time out.

This actually hasn’t been his best venue with this being just his second time reaching the quarterfinal stage at the All England Club in his career.

That, along with the aforementioned poor movement, is another reason I’m a bit hesitant to back him, despite having a distinct advantage in the power department – both on serve and from the baseline.

Would I be surprised to see him win in convincing fashion? Not really. Would I wager he covers a five-game handicap? No.


Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form

Credit where it’s due. The Italian has had an impressive grass season. At least based on his record and the deep runs he’s made. No one can take away a semifinal in Stuttgart, nor the final at Queen’s Club, and certainly not a run to the second week of Wimbledon from him.

We can, however, dig into his performances and look to see if there is a bit of good fortune involved. Let’s begin in Stuttgart, where Musetti won what amounted to a pair of coin flip tiebreaks against young gun Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, beat Dominik Koepfer by a razor-thin margin, despite having to save several break points well into the third set and received a retirement from Alexander Bublik after having lost the first set.

Then in London at Queen’s Club, he was being routed by Alex de Minaur, before the Aussie ran out of gas after having won a title the week prior, meaning he was on little rest. He then beat Brandon Nakashima in a tight three-setter that saw the American look better and generate more chances on return, but squander them. That, too, came in a deciding set.

Now at Wimbledon, Musetti has had arguably the easiest path to this stage and still needed five sets to beat a clay courter in Luciano Darderi, four sets to take down a Challenger Tour clay courter in Francisco Comesana, and then was down a set in his rematch against Mpetshi Perricard before the big man ran out of steam and his patented booming serve crumbled.

Finally, he may have a great record on the grass this year, but he’s got a lower hold percentage and break rate. That indicates that he’s been less dominant than last year. He hasn’t changed venues, played the same schedule, and simply been very fortunate to win out in almost every big moment. I don’t think what he’s doing this year is sustainable.


Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti H2H – Stat of the Match

Fritz leads 2-1 in this series, with Musetti winning on slow clay courts and Fritz winning both matches played in quicker conditions.


Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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