Taylor Fritz vs Mariano Navone Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, August 6th

First-round matchups are ready to go from this week’s ATP Masters 1000 National Bank Open in Montreal. After a slightly profitable start to the week, let’s look to keep it going as we preview Taylor Fritz vs Mariano Navone.

Navone’s win probability is just above 15%, while Fritz is favored to win at 1.11 odds. The handicap is 5.5 games and the total games line is 20.5.

Our Fritz vs Navone prediction is for the match to be over fairly quickly.

Taylor Fritz vs Mariano Navone Prediction: American Should Roll on Quicker Hard Courts

• Prediction: Under 20.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds updated at 11:00 pm UK Time on August 5th, 2024. 

With these kinds of odds on the to win market, I think it’s obvious we’re looking to target the total or the handicap. For me, it’s the total. Put quite simply, if Fritz needs a 7-5 set against Navone and his clay court game and underpowered serve, then we don’t deserve to win this bet.

With a 20.5 at a slightly expensive 1.83 though, I can’t pass up the chance to bet what essentially amounts to Fritz winning each of the first two sets by a score of 6-4 or better.

The handicap of 5.5 games seems like a lot and a 6-4, 6-4 win cashing our bet will do just fine for me.

We have more previews from the National Bank Open’s first round in both Montreal and Toronto available over on our expert insights page.

Taylor Fritz Recent Form

It’s been an excellent season for Fritz, who hasn’t won anything major but has beaten almost every player you’d expect him to, had a strong grass campaign, and even looked good at the Olympics on clay in Paris, despite it not being his preferred surface.

Back on North American hard courts, Fritz should be at his absolute best and roll through this match.

One of the puzzling parts of this odds set to me is how the market set a total of 20 or 20.5 games when they have the American winning 90% of the time. I don’t necessarily disagree with the implied probabilities when it comes to who wins and how often.

I’m afraid I certainly have to disagree with the most likely outcomes regarding scorelines in this one though, as I’d have this total much closer to 18.5 or 19 games.

Mariano Navone Recent Form

Navone has played a total of 45 professional matches in 2024. He has played a total of one of them on hard courts. That match? In Australian Open qualifying where he lost to Croatian prospect Dino Prizmic. That was in January.

Since then, Navone has played 44 matches. 41 of them have been on clay with the other three coming on grass courts. On that quicker surface? He lost all seven sets he played.

There is no way this total should be set at 20.5, expecting a 6-4, 6-4 Fritz win to occur as often as a 7-5, 6-3.

Navone can find a string of holds here and there, but against a top-15 player on his best surface? I wouldn’t count on it.

Taylor Fritz vs Mariano Navone H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two top-40 players. With Navone being fairly new to this ranking group and piling up most of his points at lower-tier events Fritz wouldn’t usually play, it makes sense.

Safer Gambling

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