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tennis | Thursday, January 4, 2024 2:33 PM (Revised at: Friday, January 5, 2024 8:36 AM)
Tennis Picks for January 4th: Free Analysis and Picks for Frances Tiafoe vs Juncheng Shang and Roman Safiullin VS Matteo Arnaldi
Jon Reid
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Tennis Picks Today: January 4th
- Tiafoe vs Shang: Over 22 Games
- Safiullin vs Arnaldi: Arnaldi to win
For Thursday’s written previews, we’ll look at a pair of matches from the ATP Tour, including Frances Tiafoe vs Juncheng Shang from the Bank of China Hong Kong Tennis Open and Roman Safiullin vs Matteo Arnaldi at the Brisbane International.
For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.
In this article:
- Frances Tiafoe vs Juncheng Shang Expert Tip
- Frances Tiafoe Recent Form
- Juncheng Shang Recent Form
- Frances Tiafoe vs Juncheng Shang H2H Stat of the Match
- Roman Safiullin vs Matteo Arnaldi Expert Tip
- Roman Safiullin Recent Form
- Matteo Arnaldi Recent Form
- Roman Safiullin vs Matteo Arnaldi H2H Stat of the Match
- Safer Gambling
Frances Tiafoe vs Juncheng Shang (Bank of China Hong Kong Tennis Open) Free Pick
- Pick: Over 22 Games
- Best Odds: 1.98
- Bookmaker: Pinnacle
- Stakes: 2/10
Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on January 4th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
That inherently presents some value thanks to conditions making breaks of serve tougher to come by, but I think this matchup is one that should be rather close for other reasons as well.
For starters, Tiafoe’s return game isn’t the strongest, and I think this total is a game too low, which might have happened thanks to Tiafoe’s wins against Shang last season – which came in less favourable conditions for Shang and in matches where Shang ran out of energy.
At the start of a new season, on courts that he’s been serving well on to this point, I think the third time may be the charm for Shang.
Read on for more expert insights.
Frances Tiafoe Recent Form
It appears as though the short offseason did Tiafoe some good. Despite playing the end of the season on relatively quick courts – Tiafoe’s preferred surface – the American struggled mightily after the U.S. Open.
His wins to reach the quarterfinals in Vienna were the only two he managed outside of the Laver Cup (an exhibition event), and he lost as a favourite quite often in the last few months.
The week has started well in Hong Kong though, with a straight sets win over Miomir Kecmanovic (although the Serbian did have his chances to take the second frame).
Tiafoe has an incredibly entertaining game that doesn’t lack in the aggression department and has the athleticism to help him make some stunning shots.
The one weakness in his game? His returning.
I’m not convinced that on quicker courts leading into the Australian Open that he can replicate the last two results he managed against Shang and expect the young man from China to put up more of a fight this time around.
Juncheng Shang Recent Form
Speaking of nice starts to the 2024 season, Shang has battled his way into his first ever ATP Tour quarterfinal.
It’s a run that has also seen him play a pair of three setters and five tiebreaks in those six sets.
Now, the length of each match is a slight concern – Shang has had issues with physicality in the past – but with it being early in the season and the teen having had a day off before the match, I’m not as concerned as I would be if this same situation presents itself in August or September.
The Chinese pro has a well-rounded game, with strong athleticism, the ability to flatten out his forehand and a lefty game that can give right-handed players fits when he creates acute angles with his forehand.
Frances Tiafoe vs Juncheng Shang H2H – Stat of the Match
This is the primary reason Shang is nearly 4.00 to win this match in the markets.
These two have played twice before, with both coming in 2023 (a relevant time frame) and on hard courts (the same surface).
Last year Shang played a fairly strong opening two sets against the American in Melbourne before crumbling in the third, before he floundered in Washington in the final 16 (though he did have some decent wins leading into that match).
This should be an interesting third try for Shang in the week prior to Australian Open qualifying.
Roman Safiullin vs Matteo Arnaldi (Brisbane International) Free Pick: Young Upstart to Keep Proving Himself On Hard Courts
- Pick: Arnaldi to win
- Best Odds: 2.82
- Bookmaker: Pinnacle
- Stakes: 2/10
Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on January 4th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
I’m well aware that Safiullin is a natural quicker surface kind of player and burst onto the scene in 2023, but Arnaldi was also one of last season’s biggest movers and he’s proven his bona fides at this level on hard courts several times since the summer.
I’m happy to back him to pull off the upset here.
Read on for more expert insights.
Roman Safiullin Recent Form
The start to the 2024 season has seen some incredibly close matches take place, and the two that have featured the world No. 39 have been no different.
Safiullin required a deciding set to beat both Ben Shelton and Alexei Popyrin – and he had to save several match points to get by the latter.
Safiullin is probably one of the more unheralded players inside the top-40 of the rankings, but he has a potent game with a strong serve and forehand combination, along with a flat backhand that steals time from opponents and can be used in attack as well.
I’m not as sold as his prowess on return though, and he won’t be given too much time with Arnaldi’s ability to generate power. To me this is a much closer match than the odds would indicate.
Matteo Arnaldi Recent Form
Continuing the theme of the article (at least for the last two players discussed), the young Italian has also needed three sets in his opening matches to reach the quarterfinals.
After establishing himself on the lower circuit as a clay courter, this past summer saw the 22-year-old rack up wins on hard courts against the likes of Jason Kubler, Arthur Fils, Cam Norrie, J.J. Wolf and Jan Lennard Struff, among others.
His strong serve and powerful forehand certainly translate to hard courts and his movement and ability to shift gears to defend when necessary helps round out his game nicely.
Roman Safiullin vs Matteo Arnaldi H2H – Stat of the Match
No prior meeting between these two, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some fireworks when they do take the court.
The forehands may not be as lauded as some of the guys higher up the rankings, but they can both hit some blistering shots off that side and will certainly look to maintain control of points during their service games.
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
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