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tennis | Petak, Januar 5, 2024 9:16 AM
Tennis Picks for January 5th: Free Analysis and Picks for Joao Sousa vs Maks Kasnikowski and Valentin Royer vs Tristan Lamasine
Jon Reid
2
Tennis Picks Today: January 5th
- Sousa vs Kasnikowski: Sousa to win
- Royer vs Lamasine: Royer -2.5 games
Let’s look at Joao Sousa vs Maks Kasnikowski and the all-French Valentin Royer vs Tristan Lamasine encounter.
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In this article:
- Joao Sousa vs Maks Kasnikowski Expert Tip
- Joao Sousa Recent Form
- Maks Kasnikowski Recent Form
- Joao Sousa vs Maks Kasnikowski H2H Stat of the Match
- Valentin Royer vs Tristan Lamasine Expert Tip
- Valentin Royer Recent Form
- Tristan Lamasine Recent Form
- Valentin Royer vs Tristan Lamasine H2H Stat of the Match
- Safer Gambling
Joao Sousa vs Maks Kasnikowski (Oeiras Indoor 1) Free Pick: Can Resurgent Veteran Reach Another SF on Home Soil?
- Pick: Sousa to win
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: Unibet
- Stakes: 3/10
Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on January 5th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
That lack of success saw his ranking fall precipitously to well outside of the top 200. That’s important to note because that drop is the only reason why he’s eligible to play this tournament – a 50-point Challenger that limits the ranking of those who can enter the field.
He is still someone who was once among the best 30 players in the world by ranking and possesses a game that many of his peers in the draw in Portugal would be envious of.
His quality is too great for him to be so evenly priced against a talented, but still developing talent in his Polish opponent.
Read on for more expert insights.
Joao Sousa Recent Form
Now for a bit more on Sousa’s progression after his tumble down the ranks last year.
In early August, he headed back to his home country to play the Porto Challenger on hard courts and out of nowhere, managed to reach the final. The four wins there were nearly equal to the number he had amassed the entire season to that point.
That gave him some confidence, as he then went on to make another semifinal appearance and a pair of quarterfinals the rest of the way in 2023.
Further, except for a tournament or two, his losses came against fairly strong competition, and he was nearly victorious in a few of those defeats.
Clearly, Sousa is back on the rise and returning to form. That, combined with his superior game on the court, has me believing he deserves to be a more clear favourite against almost anyone in a Challenger 50 draw.
Maks Kasnikowski Recent Form
The 20-year-old Pole is someone who could be poised for a breakout campaign in 2024, and a quarterfinal at this level to start his season is a step in the right direction in that regard.
Kasnikowski’s serve has been working pretty well this week, and his game is pretty solid, although not all that head-turning.
The key for me with Kasnikowski is that the respect is coming in pretty quickly for someone who is still young, developing and relatively unproven.
He played a pair of close sets as a rather large favourite last round against Joao Domingues, and his opening match saw him save six match points to barely survive the opening round against the mercurial Adrian Andreev.
I think the market is overvaluing him right now and when taking on someone who can play at the level Sousa can, it leads to value being found in opposing him.
Joao Sousa vs Maks Kasnikowski H2H – Stat of the Match
The timing of each of their careers means that we haven’t seen these two play one another just yet.
That’ll change on Friday, as we get a stern test for Kasnikowski, who has a chance to prove that the market’s trust in him isn’t misguided.
The youngster has pulled himself within 12 points in the raw hard-court elo rating of his veteran opponent. Perhaps Friday’s match is his chance to pass Sousa.
Valentin Royer vs Tristan Lamasine (Oeiras Indoor 1) Free Pick: Royer with an Edge
Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on January 5th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
Having studied some film from 2023, Royer is certainly near the top of my list for players who should break into the top 200 for the first time. Still just 22 years old, Royer has a very nice game that is capable of winning across surfaces.
I’ve also been a fan of Lamasine’s game for some time, but the breakout has never come for the 30-year-old, though his form has picked up since the summer.
Perhaps he’ll end up being the next Constant Lestienne and be the latest Frenchman to make a late-career surge, but I’ll back the younger player with the ability to play front-foot tennis more dominantly in his service games.
Read on for more expert insights.
Valentin Royer Recent Form
Royer enters the 2024 season off a year that saw him lift four trophies at the ITF level, reach another final (losing that match to one of the only players who put up a more impressive campaign on the ITF circuit in Henrique Rocha) and also reach a semifinal at the Challenger level as a qualifier as well.
The tall French young gun has the serve and forehand to dictate play but is surprisingly adept when returning as well.
There’s a lot to like about the 22-year-old’s well-rounded game and a Challenger 50 in the opening week of the season would be the perfect place for Royer to lift his first trophy on the Challenger Tour.
Tristan Lamasine Recent Form
After years of (what I deem to be) underachieving, Lamasine has managed to revive his ranking back to the edge of the top 300.
With some pop and a decent variety, I’ve always believed he had the tools to be much more of a contender on a consistent basis at the Challenger level than he ever has been.
Late in 2023 we started to see signs of consistent success for the first time in what feels like forever.
Lamasine reached at least the semifinals in his last six ITF tournaments of the season, made a run to the semis at the Hamburg Challenger as a qualifier who had to play six matches in seven days and made the second round of the Orleans Challenger, putting in a very respectable performance as an eight dollar underdog against Jack Draper – one of the best young players in all of tennis.
If he weren’t playing an equally in-form opponent who I think boasts a more powerful game, I’d certainly be giving him a decent chance to make yet another semifinal this week.
Valentin Royer vs Tristan Lamasine H2H – Stat of the Match
Another match with no prior matches to analyse between the pair of players in this one.
We should see an interesting contrast in styles though, with Lamasine not having as much power as his younger compatriot, but certainly able to bring plenty of variety on court to the table.
My numbers do like Royer by three games at a price point of 1.91 though, so I’ll gladly take the value on the -2.5 game handicap.
For main tour coverage, check out the preview going over the pre-draw odds on who will win the Australian Open!
SAFER GAMBLING
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