tennis | Monday, January 8, 2024 9:34 AM

Tennis Picks for January 8th: Free Tennis Picks for Joao Fonseca vs Felix Gill and Lukas Neumayer vs Carlos Sanchez

Jon Reid

Tennis Picks Today: January 8th

Fonseca vs Gill: Fonseca -3 games at 1.92 odds
Neumayer vs Gill: Neumayer -2.5 games at 1.93 odds

A slow week to get our season going with our previews. Luckily we have a long road ahead to turn things around.

For Monday’s previews, we’ll head back to the ATP Challenger Tour, as the action in Australia is likely to be done too early at the tour level.

Let’s look at both Joao Fonseca vs Felix Gill vs Lukas Neumayer vs Carlos Sanchez Jover from the Challenger AAT de TCA 1.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

Joao Fonseca vs Felix Gill Expert Tip
Joao Fonseca Recent Form
Felix Gill Recent Form
Joao Fonseca H2H Stat of the Match
Lukas Neumayer vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Expert Tip
Lukas Neumayer Recent Form
Carlos Sanchez Jover Recent Form
Lukas Neumayer vs Carlos Sanchez Jover H2H Stat of the Match
Safer Gambling

Joao Fonseca vs Felix Gill (Challenger AAT de TCA 1) Free Pick: Elite Youngster to Thrive on Home Continent

Pick: Fonseca -3 games
Best Odds: 1.92
Bookmaker: Pinnacle
Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 2:45 am UK Time on January 8th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

The market has been big on one of the best junior talents in the world in recent matches, but I’m not sure it’s gone quite far enough in this matchup. Perhaps the strong record of Gill on clay last year is keeping this contest from reaching the 3.5 or 4 game handicap, but make no mistake, Gill didn’t play or beat almost anyone that would match the quality of the young Brazilian.

I’m happy to back Fonseca on slower clay where he’s the superior player, can dictate play far more easily and where the conditions are slow enough that I’m not overly concerned with needing to find breaks of serve to ensure he can win by a large enough margin.

Read on for more expert insights.

Joao Fonseca Recent Form

While the markets have bet the 17-year-old quite a bit since the odds opened, it isn’t nearly as drastic as his last time out against Roman Burruchaga in Brasilia (a match he ended up losing from a set-up).

I also believe that we’ve yet to see this match reach an efficient point and that there’s still room to exploit a poor price here.

Fonseca may have trouble on occasion when it comes to controlling the aggressive, powerful game he possesses, but the talent is absolutely undeniable.

A lot of the time that he has struggled with unforced errors, he’s actually playing on quicker surfaces where he has less time to react. That can be tough for seasoned professionals who prefer slower clay courts, much less a teenager.

With this match on slow clay at sea level, Fonseca should have far more time against an opponent who doesn’t really have all that much firepower.

It should be a positive start to 2024 for the elite young gun.

Felix Gill Recent Form

The rare Brit that plays far more on clay courts than hards, Gill has spent the majority of last few seasons on the ITF Tour trying to build his ranking.

He’s reached the top 400, but it’s taken a few seasons and while he’s racked up 60 wins on clay at various levels in those two years, he’s also lost over 30 times.

That means that he’s just above average for the lower levels of the sport and likely to be overmatched a lot of the time at the Challenger Tour level.

Now, this would have been the perfect chance for him to gain some experience at a higher level with the limitations that the Challenger 50 level places on entrants and with so many players in Australia, but he’s fallen victim to a poor draw.

Fonseca may be outside the top 700, but he’s an elite young talent that the tennis world knows very well already, despite limited played on the professional circuit.

Joao Fonseca vs Felix Gill H2H – Stat of the Match

No head-to-head to report here.

Fonseca is just 17 and brand new to the professional ranks, while Gill has primarily played in Europe in his time on the pro circuit.

I’m anxious to see if Gill can take that clay court success at the ITF level and translate it to a higher-level tournament against much tougher opposition.

Lukas Neumayer vs Carlos Sanchez Jover (Challenger AAT de TCA 1) Free Pick: Talented Austrian to Power Through Sanchez Jover

Pick: Neumayer -2.5 games
Best Odds: 1.93
Bookmaker: Pinnacle
Stakes: 6/10

Odds as at 2:45 am UK Time on January 8th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Like the last selection, I believe this is another match with a fair-sized talent gap between the players. For me, Sanchez Jover’s strength is his return game on the slower clay. That is negated by the fact that Neumayer serves well and is the better all-around player from the baseline with his groundstrokes.

He has such a nice combination of a heavy and pacy forehand and should certainly be able to seize control of the majority of points in this contest.

Read on for more expert insights.

Lukas Neumayer Recent Form

Known more for his exploits so far in elevated conditions on the red dirt, Neumayer is a burgeoning talent on the ATP’s secondary circuit.

Yet to reach the world’s top 200, I’d be surprised if the Austrian didn’t make that breakthrough in 2024.

He’s not just comfortable on clay, but he can dictate play and has the ability to his powerful and heavier forehands. That combination can be particularly effective on clay. The spin ensures his shots are less attackable, while the pace helps it cut through the slow clay and apply pressure to his opponents.

Taking on a much less powerful player and one he should have no issue generating break-point opportunities against, I have Neumayer winning this one by a fair-sized margin more often than not.

The 21-year-old struggled down the stretch in 2023, but one has to think that a long season – one he may not have been used to – caught up to him and the wear and tear caused those issues.

Keep in mind, he still won a pair of ITF titles and reached another couple of Challenger Tour finals on the dirt between late May and mid-August.

The time off should have done him a world of good, and I think he’s one of the better players in the draw this week in Argentina.

Carlos Sanchez Jover Recent Form

Known more as a traditional grinding, defensive-minded clay courter, Sanchez Jover has historically struggled when coming up to this level.

Last season he had fewer than 10 main draw wins in Challenger tournaments, with one coming as a lucky loser (meaning he lost in qualifying before gaining entry into the main draw).

His service numbers tell the story, as he’s held serve less than 65% of the time in each Challenger Tour season and has never backed up his first serve at a rate better than 61%.

It’s no wonder he’s yet to break into the top 300 and against a decent server, he may not be able to recover the breaks he concedes in this one.

Lukas Neumayer vs Carlos Sanchez Jover H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meeting between these two players.

Neumayer now plays far more regularly in main draws at this level, while Sanchez Jover has struggled to maintain his spot when getting into main draws.

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

Like the article: