Tennis Picks Today for January 30th: Free Tennis Picks, Stats, Analysis

Tennis Picks Today: January 30th

1. Burel vs Kraus: Over 18.5 games & Kraus +1.5 sets
2. Cazaux vs Marterer: Marterer +1.5 sets & Marterer to win

Go with our tip at bet365That was a lovely start to the week! We stake out positions backing a pair of underdogs and they both come through. A great example of why one shouldn’t be afraid to lose bets and always look to pounce on poor prices.

For Tuesday, we’ll look at one match from each of the ATP and WTA Tours. First, we’ll break down Clara Burel vs Sinja Kraus from the Upper Austria Ladies Linz and then we’ll preview Arthur Cazaux vs Maximilian Marterer from the Open Sud de France.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

• Clara Burel vs Sinja Kraus Expert Tip
• Clara Burel Recent Form
• Sinja Kraus Recent Form
• Clara Burel vs Sinja Kraus H2H Stat of the Match
• Arthur Cazauz vs Maximilian Marterer Expert Tip
• Arthur Cazaux Recent Form
• Maximilian Marterer Recent Form
• Arthur Cazaux vs Maximilian Marterer H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

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Clara Burel vs Sinja Kraus (Upper Austria Ladies Linz) Free Pick: Austrian Wild Card Undervalued in First Round Clash

• Picks: Over 18.5 games & Kraus +1.5 sets
• Best Odds: 1.91 & 3.14
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on January 30th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Go with our tip at bet365When it comes to finding market inefficiencies, there are often three reasons I find myself disagreeing with the odds the market has shaped.

First, we have an overvaluation or overreaction to success, the second is the lack of awareness about a player and finally, there is data-driven pricing that lacks context or doesn’t account for the qualitative aspects of a certain matchup.

In this match, I think we’re seeing both an overvaluation on Burel and a lack of awareness regarding Kraus’ talent.

Read on for more expert insights.

Clara Burel Recent Form

It took a few years, but Burel’s ascent has finally happened, as the 22-year-old is on the cusp of making the top-50 in the world rankings for the first time.

She hasn’t made a real big run at one of the bigger events, but Burel won a higher level ITF event last year, as well as the Angers 125K event indoors to end her season. She also reached a final in Lausanne and a semi in Monastir.

The development of her consistency has really complemented her decent forehand and her good first serve.

I’m not sure how much higher she’ll rise without adding a bit more power to her game, but she is well-equipped to succeed at 125Ks and 250s on the WTA Tour. My issue with the price point in this match stems more from the fact that I’m just not certain Burel has proven enough yet to be this much of a dominant favourite against another talented player.

Sinja Kraus Recent Form

The young Austrian has always been more of a clay courter than hard court player, but I’ve been of the firm belief that her game has the requisite characteristics to translate to the quicker surfaces as well.

We saw her fare well at a higher level ITF event in Porto, Portugal last week, and I do believe that she can push Burel on home soil.

For starters, the 21-year-old has a decent serve that should play well in relatively quick conditions and help her find holds of serve.

Her heavy forehand may be more suited to clay courts, but she can still generate pace on that wing, which will help her dictate and end points on an indoor hard court as well.

The second serve is a vulnerability and the backhand isn’t the strongest – after all, there is a reason she’s the underdog – but I’m not sure she should be getting a six-game head start or be billed to win this matchup only once in every seven times.

Clara Burel vs Sinja Kraus H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior matches between these two ladies in their early 20s at the professional level.

I’m anxious to see how often Kraus can generate pressure on return and how her backhand holds up against the Frenchwoman, or if Burel even makes a concerted effort to try to break that groundstroke down.

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Arthur Cazaux vs Maximilian Marterer (Open Sud de France) Free Pick: Oppose Cazaux Off of Career Run Down Under

• Picks: Marterer +1.5 sets & Marterer to win
• Best Odds: 1.81 & 3.20
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle & Bet365
• Stakes: 4/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on January 30th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Go with our tip at bet365As talented as Cazaux is, and as well as he’s played so far in 2024, I’m going to take a chance at opposing him in this one.

Marterer has a big lefty game that is more than capable of keeping things close in quicker conditions, and combined with a potential overreaction to Cazaux’s play in Australia, I think these odds have gotten a tad too cheap to pass on.

Read on for more expert insights.

Arthur Cazaux Recent Form

One of the trendiest names on tour at the moment, the young Frenchman is looking to build on a terrific start to his 2024 campaign.

Cazaux won eight of his nine matches in New Caledonia and Australia, and is living up to the potential we saw a few years back when he squared off with fellow French youngster Harold Mayot for the junior title at the year’s first slam.

His game is well rounded with no major weaknesses and he’s added power and aggression to his game in the last 8-12 months that has helped elevate his game to the next level.

That said, I do think the breakout run in Melbourne on the big stage has really seen a major overreaction to his odds in the betting markets. The fact is, he’s playing a tough player in quick conditions that really make it tough to win by margin and even if he is the better player, he’s back into the best-of-three set format now that makes it much easier for underdogs to pull off upsets.

Maximilian Marterer Recent Form

Marterer’s only match this year was a loss to the other big story that came out of the men’s draw at the Australian Open in Nuno Borges. It didn’t look great at the time, but with the Portuguese making a run to the second week, and several sets being incredibly close, it doesn’t seem so bad in retrospect.

Now we move indoors and into a best-of-three set match, which levels the playing field for someone like Marterer.

We saw how effective the tall German’s game can be at this level indoors late last season, when he went all the way to the semifinals as a qualifier in Antwerp before reaching the final of the Ismaning Challenger and winning the Danderyd Challenger.

His serve and plus-one, first-strike tennis is tough to beat by margin, and that means it’s tough for me to believe he’s only about a 30% chance to win this match.

Arthur Cazaux vs Maximilian Marterer H2H – Stat of the Match

We’ve yet to see these two play in a professional match.

For me, the key to this one is how many points Cazaux can win in the German’s service games. If Marterer’s serve is as effective as I expect it to be, it’s going to be tough to generate more than a few break point chances in the entirety of the match.

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SAFER GAMBLING

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