Thiago Tirante vs Dominic Thiem Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, July 23rd

Our first Tuesday preview comes from the Generali Open up in the alps of Austria, as the ATP Tour is holding a 250 tournament there this week. Let’s go to the night session match, Thiago Tirante vs Dominic Thiem. Our Tirante vs Thiem prediction at 1.77 odds and match prediction are available below!

Thiem’s win probability checks in at about 46%, while Tirante is favoured to win at 1.77 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Thiago Tirante vs Dominic Thiem Prediction: Thiem’s Struggles to Continue Against In Form Argentine

• Prediction: Tirante to win
• Best Odds: 1.77
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds updated at 1:00 am UK Time on July 23rd, 2024. 

There are plenty of reasons to think that this match is greatly mispriced. First and foremost is the steep decline in Thiem’s game. Not only does he constantly look defeated in his body language on the court, but his game has severely regressed since returning from injury a few years ago.

He doesn’t have the firepower he once did and that really reduces his chances in nearly every match he plays.

The second is that he’s taking on a strong clay court player who has found most of his success at altitude – Kitzbuhel is about 750 metres above sea level – in Tirante. What’s worse is that Tirante is coming off a strong week last time out in Bastad as well.

Sure, Thiem went deep here last year (though he had to win several tiebreaks and come back in two of those wins), but his game isn’t where it was even a year ago and I’m really hesitant to trust him as even a small underdog.

Factor in that he will have the second best forehand on court by a fairly clear margin and it’s tough to construct a path to victory for the veteran here, other than Tirante’s forehand imploding (something that is certainly possible and that has happened before). Our Tirante vs Thiem prediction is for Tirante to win.

Check out the expert insights section for more previews from around the tennis world.

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Thiago Tirante Recent Form

After some strong results during the altitude clay swing through Central America earlier in the season, Tirante went months without more than a win or two to his name.

Playing strong competition can do that to a guy.

He finally snapped out his funk last week in Sweden, reaching the semifinal of a clay 250. Now, let’s not jump to conclusions that he’ll be doing that with more regularity now. It’s one of his best career results and could very well be an outlier.

Luckily for him, he’s getting a pretty decent first match against an underpowered and struggling Thiem to try to back up that long week.

His forehand is a major weapon, but its lack of consistency has kept him down on the Challenger circuit and really having difficulties breaking into, and staying in, the world’s top-100.

If he loses this match, one has to continue questioning the sustainability of his on-court approach. I, for one, don’t think that’ll be the case and see Tirante winning this contest a considerable amount of the time.

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Dominic Thiem Recent Form

Five. That’s the number of professional circuit wins Thiem has during the 2024 season. Two of those came from a set down as a sizable favourite and just one has come in the main draw of a tournament at the main level.

That alone isn’t enough to oppose Thiem, but it certainly opens the door to betting against him and provides a pretty decent look into just how much the 30-year-old has struggled. He’ll be retiring after the 2024 campaign and it’s pretty clear why.

He can no longer generate the same kind of pace that once defined his game and as a result he looks helpless on court against almost anyone week-in, week-out.

Now, the counter to this point is that he made the final here a year ago. The altitude and home crowd should certainly boost him – the latter from a confidence and motivational standpoint, the former from a more tactical one, as the thinner air will make him look slightly less underpowered.

The regression from even this time last year though is clear and he’s playing against a clay courter who also enjoys playing in elevated conditions.

He may win this match, but he shouldn’t be well over 40% to get the job done in the betting markets as we’re seeing here.

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Thiago Tirante vs Dominic Thiem H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time these two have run into each other at the professional level. This could very well be the last as well, with Thiem only expected to play for a few more months.

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