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tennis | Thursday, October 6, 2022 7:36 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Challenger Campinas, Luciano Darderi vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Challenger Campinas, Luciano Darderi vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida
Contributor: Independent Photo Agency Srl / Alamy Stock Photo

Luciano Darderi vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Best Bet: Thursday, October 6th

Tough going as the winning streak on the men’s side comes to an end. The anticipated tanked set came right off the bat, but Kotov showed his ability in the second, dictating play, but hanging around in longer rallies as well. Ultimately, couldn’t hold onto the break lead and lost the set in a tiebreak.

Onto Thursday, where we’ll dip down to the ATP Challenger Tour, with many of the later matches on the ATP Tour being tough to find much value in. It’s across the globe to Brazil, for a match between young Italian Luciano Darderi and Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida, who will be playing on home soil.

In this article:


Luciano Darderi vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Preview

October 6th, 22:00 UK Time

I’ll preface this preview section with the caveat that Pucinelli de Almeida has, in the past, had some okay results at slight altitude (Campinas is played about 600 metres above sea level), and is coming off a strong performance in Portugal on the dirt.

The problem for the 21-year-old Brazilian comes from the fact that he doesn’t really have an elite weapon. On occasion, he can dial up his serve and forehand for a few matches and look like a promising prospect, but the fact is, his game isn’t a powerful one, and those times he tries to inject pace simply prove to be unsustainable over the long run.

Despite having several tournaments where he’s won at least three matches, he’s barely posted more wins than losses on clay courts in 2022 and he’s seen far more losses in the first round than he has deep runs.

On the flip side, Darderi has posted a much more convincing winning record, and has posted a slew of impressive wins against quality players in his 50+ matches on the dirt this year.

He’s able to generate pace on his forehand in a more sustainable, natural way and his serve will benefit from the slightly elevated conditions as well. Further, his game already possesses more variety at just 20 years old than many on the Challenger Tour – including his opponent in this one.


Luciano Darderi vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Best Bet

For my money, it’s not just strange that Darderi isn’t an emphatic favourite in this match, it’s positively baffling. Perhaps the markets are a tad worried by his less-than-stellar results in South America of late, but he turned the tables on a much more skilled Brazilian in his last match as an underdog (which should help deal with any potentially hostile crowd), has beaten Federico Coria (again as an underdog) and seems to be settling into the South American swing.

With advantages in almost every facet of the game over Pucinelli de Almeida, I have this priced with Darderi in the 1.65 range. I’ll gladly take the 1.98 on offer.

  • Selection: Darderi to Win
  • Best Odds: 1.98 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 9:30 am on October 6th, 2022. Odds may now differ.


More Luciano Darderi vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Tips


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