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Tennis | Thursday, October 13, 2022 7:47 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Florence, Lorenzo Musetti vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Florence, Lorenzo Musetti vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles
Contributor: Mariano Garcia / Alamy Stock Photo

Lorenzo Musetti vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles Best Bet: Thursday, October 13th

A nice win for Mikael Ymer, who made things quite nerve-wracking after leading 6-1, *1-0 and needing to come back from a break down in the decider.

Onto Thursday, where we’ll stick with the 250 event in Florence, Italy to preview a match between Lorenzo Musetti and Bernabe Zapata Miralles.

In this article:


Lorenzo Musetti vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles Preview

October 13th, 15:00 UK Time

Another week, another tournament taking place on indoor hard courts with Musetti being slightly overvalued.

The young Italian isn’t necessarily incompetent on the surface, but he’s continually being priced as a rather large favourite in conditions that don’t flatte his game style.

Despite a run all the way to the semifinals in the Sofia, it’s worth keeping a few things in mind. First, he had a bye to the second round of action. Second, he was down a set and 6-5 to Alexandar Lazarov, with the Bulgarian serving for the match in the second round. That was as a 1.20 to 1.25 favourite.

Then he was a rather sizable favourite in the semifinal round that he ended up losing to Marc Andrea Huesler as well. I’m not sure why he continues to see such massive respect in these tournaments, but I don’t mind opposing him.

As for his opponent in Zapata Miralles, he’s also much more of a clay courter, but he’s actually fared better than expected on hard courts against players that can’t bully him with power in baseline exchanges.

The Spaniard pushed Tommy Paul to the brink at the U.S. Open in front of a hostile crowd, with Paul needing a 7-5 fifth set win to advance. He also beat a more natural hard-court player in Taro Daniel and has split two hard-court matches with Lorenzo Sonego – who’s serve the last few seasons has allowed him to have some surprise results on quicker surfaces.

With Musetti firmly in the camp of players that are more talented than Zapata Miralles, but certainly won’t be pushing him around with booming serves and groundstrokes, Bernabe should be in with a chance to keep things close in this one.


Lorenzo Musetti vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles Best Bet

When we’re looking to back bets in these spots, we often want to spot a favourite that is overvalued or an underdog that is undervalued.

In this match, however, I think for an assortment of reasons, we actually get a bit of both.

I’ll back Zapata Miralles to keep things close in this one, and even back him with smaller stakes to pull off another upset of an Italian this week in Florence.

  • Selection: Zapata Miralles +3.5 Games
  • Best Odds: 1.86 (GGbet)
  • Stakes: 2/10
  • Bonus: Zapata Miralles to win at 3.00 odds with Coolbet using 1/10 stakes.

More Lorenzo Musetti vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles Tips


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