tennis | Wednesday, July 20, 2022 2:21 PM (Revised at: Thursday, July 21, 2022 1:33 PM)

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Hamburg, Aslan Karatsev vs Daniel Elahi Galan

Jon Reid

Aslan Karatsev vs Daniel Elahi Galan Best Bet: Thursday, July 21st

For Thursday’s selection on the men’s side, we head to the second round in Hamburg, Germany, with Aslan Karatsev and Daniel Elahi Galan set to do battle for a place in the quarterfinals.

This one could be a fun match to tune into, with some explosive forehands on display. Let’s delve into the matchup.

In this article:

Aslan Karatsev vs Daniel Elahi Galan Preview
Aslan Karatsev vs Daniel Elahi Galan Best Bet

Aslan Karatsev vs Daniel Elahi Galan Preview

Thursday, July 21st TBD

As alluded to above, this matchup features two men who can absolutely blast their forehands through the slower clay courts, really putting their opponents on the defensive.

Karatsev probably has the more explosive game all-around (he possesses the bigger and more aggressive backhand of the two), but Galan is going to be the more consistent player (not that he’s the epitome of consistency either, just that Karatsev’s game can disappear on a whim).

I’d also venture that Galan is the more natural clay courter in this matchup. He’s got the better topspin game to coax errors from his opponent (again, that could play a key role against the Russian here) and has more experience playing on the surface throughout his career.

Galan also has the form edge, having a much better record this season on the dirt. Galan also leads Karatsev this season in ace percentage, first serves in play, first serve points won, second serve points won, service hold percentage and break of serve percentage on clay in 2022.

Aslan Karatsev vs Daniel Elahi Galan Best Bet

Given everything I’ve listed above, it’s a shock to see Galan the underdog here. He can hang on the forehand wing with his Russian counterpart, is a bit more consistent, and is having a much better season.

Perhaps the markets are reading too much into Karatsev’s win over Nikoloz Basilashvili in the opening round. Considering Basilashvili’s off-court issues (both legal and with the governing body of tennis over potential match fixing) and the fact that he won just three points in a clearly-tanked second set, I’m not weighing that match too heavily into my pricing here.

I’ll be backing the underdog in this spot.