Thursday Tennis Best Bet: Istanbul Challenger, Harold Mayot vs Lorenzo Giustino
Harold Mayot vs. Lorenzo Giustino Best Bet: Thursday, September 15th
Well, it’s been a nice week of going down to the Challenger Tour level for our selections from the men’s game this week. With Davis Cup releasing matchups late (subsequently leading to odds being posted late), and not being the most compelling format for tennis anyhow, it’s the perfect time to try and exploit some mistakes from the lower level of professional tennis.
For Thursday’s selection we’ll stick with the Challenger tennis, but head to the event in Istanbul as the second round wraps up.
Our selection comes from the match featuring young gun Harold Mayot and Lorenzo Giustino.
In this article:
Harold Mayot vs Lorenzo Giustino Preview
September 15th, 10:00 UK Time
It’s been a strong summer for the young Frenchman, who is finally healthy for a decent stretch after a few years of dealing with injury woes.
Starting the year playing primarily (though not exclusively) at the ITF level across both hard courts and clay courts through June, Mayot’s last six events have been at the Challenger level, and he’s found enough success to find himself on the doorstep of the world’s top-250 players for the first time (a win in this match could very well ensure a top-250 debut).
After reaching a clay Challenger final as a qualifier in Finland, Mayot has looked strong since shifting to hard courts as well. That shouldn’t come as a surprise, considering he’s a former junior grand slam champion on the surface, having beaten his compatriot Arthur Cazaux for the 2020 Australian Open boys title.
After a strong run in Grodzisk Mazowiecki, which saw him reach the semis before falling to one of the most in-form Challenger players of the summer in Zhizhen Zhang, Mayot managed to beat another promising youngster in the first round of this event, blanking Paul Jubb in the third set.
Playing against an Italian, who has very little match play – at any level – on hard courts this season, Mayot should be able to keep his strong run of form going in rather convincing fashion.
He’s more accustomed to the surface, has the bigger serve, is more capable of dictating from the baseline, yet also plays with enough consistency to ensure that Giustino can’t just play a defensive style and wait out unforced errors.
Harold Mayot vs Lorenzo Giustino Best Bet
There’s a strong case to make for this handicap being around the five-game mark. Four games and even the 4.5-game handicaps could very well simply come down to winning each set by a break and the service order dictating which side of the bet wins.
With Mayot far more likely to break and much more comfortable on the surface, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him find a double break in one of the two sets he’d need to win.
We find the handicap for this one, however, at 3.5 games, which seems exceedingly cheap given all the factors listed above.
I’m more than happy to grab that number, as if Mayot can win a set by a double-break margin as I suspect he very well could, this bet may even have a chance of landing if the Frenchman were to need a third set to seal the victory.
- Selection: Mayot -3.5 Games
- Best Odds: 1.87 (Bwin)
- Stakes: 4/10
Odds as at 11:00 am on September 15th, 2022. Odds may now differ.