tennis | Thursday, September 1, 2022 8:56 AM

Thursday Tennis Best Bet: US Open Women, Garbine Muguruza vs Linda Fruhvirtova

Jon Reid

Garbine Muguruza vs. Linda Fruhvirtova Best Bet: Thursday, September 1st

Another day, another soul-crushing loss on a high-stakes play. After leading 6-2 and looking in prime position to cash in on the -5 games handicap on a large bet, Krejcikova collapses and becomes the latest in a long line of losses from a dominant position on our written up selection.

For Thursday’s selection from second-round action in the women’s draw, it’s a match between two generations, as multi-slam champion Garbine Muguruza takes on one of the best players of the up-and-coming generation in 17-year-old Linda Fruhvirtova.

In this article:

Garbine Muguruza vs Linda Fruhvirtova Preview
Garbine Muguruza vs Linda Fruhvirtova Best Bet

Garbine Muguruza vs Linda Fruhvirtova Preview

September 1st, 19:30 UK Time

After finally putting together an impressive performance, it appears much of the tennis world believes this could be the turning point for the veteran Spaniard in finding some form.

I’m not so sure, however, as we’ve seen Muguruza win a match at an event plenty this year, and then be shown the exit in her second time on court. In fact, the last time Muguruza won two consecutive matches? Doha in February.

The fact is, her movement has regressed in a significant way, and the power on her serve and groundstrokes has also diminished in a noticeable way. Whether it be the eye test, or statistically, Muguruza has not been the top-10 player this season that her ranking indicates.

Her ace rate is down to just 4% on hard courts (down from 7% in 2020 and 5% in 2021), she wins fewer points on her first serve than she did a year ago and her second serve is much more vulnerable, with a five-percentage point dip in points won behind that serve from 2021 to 2022 on hard courts.

Even her first-round victory needs some contextualization. Clara Tauson is an impressive young player, but since the Australian Open has struggled mightily, dealing with injuries and posting a record of just 6-11 across all surfaces. Even in that match, Muguruza had to save a trio of set points in the second set and also trailed 1-4 in the tiebreak before coming back to eke out the win.

Finally, the matchup is also one that Fruhvirtova can deal with. Despite being billed as a clay-court prospect in previous years, the Czech’s most notable results have come on the quicker clay in Charleston last year and on the hard courts (albeit slower conditions) in Miami this year where she reached the fourth round.

We’ve seen her fare well against the power of someone like Victoria Azarenka, and with Muguruza’s pace seemingly diminished, the concern of being blown off the court isn’t nearly as big as it would’ve been a few years ago.

She also has tremendous rally tolerance and an incredibly effective backhand wing – something most young players struggle with – which should help her construct points and coax errors from her veteran opponent; which has happened all too often for Muguruza this season.

Garbine Muguruza vs Linda Fruhvirtova Best Bet

While Muguruza is certainly the bigger name in this matchup, the fact is, the market continues to price her up as the player she used to be.

The effectiveness of her game, whether the power or the movement, has clearly declined, and playing a youngster oozing with promise, I’m more than happy to take the nice underdog odds on offer.