Jarry Keeps it Close: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Nicolas Jarry Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 5/16/24

 

The second ATP quarterfinal of the day is Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Nicolas Jarry for a spot in the Internazionali BNL d’Italia semifinals. Our Tsitsipas vs Jarry prediction is available below!

Jarry’s win probability is only 22.4% while Tsitsipas is favored to win at 1.25 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Tsitsipas vs Jarry Prediction: Don’t Sleep on Jarry in Potentially Close Matchup

Full disclosure on this match, I have a future on Tsitsipas, so my approach to this match is going to be a little different.

However, if I’m handicapping this without any other bets weighing on my mind, I think there might be a bit of value on the Chilean here. The fact this match is at night will help Tsitsipas more, there’s no doubting that. Of all the players on tour, the Greek No. 1 is near the top of the list of surface speeds playing an outsized role in their chances.

Evening conditions are cooler and therefore slower than the afternoon, and while it may not be a big deal to many players, because of his one-handed backhand being vulnerable against big servers and hitters of the ball in quicker conditions (Jarry falls into that category), Tsitsipas could use as much help as he can get.

He should win the tournament at this point with most top seeds out and a few of the world’s top players never in the draw, but don’t sleep on Jarry, whose power can give him fits.

Ultimately, I would pass or play a really small stake in Jarry if you don’t have money on either of these guys in the futures markets. If you have a Tsitsipas future in your portfolio, I wouldn’t fault you for playing Jarry to win as a hedge with his price well over 4.00.

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Stefanos Tsitsipas Recent Form

A lot was being made of the poor hard court season for Tsitsipas leading into this spring clay court swing. It’s kind of understandable in a way since I think some regression was due to the number of close matches he’s played in recent years on quicker courts. Australia, and now even Rotterdam and Miami (which used to be slow) are all quicker courts which hurt him.

Coming back to clay was always going to be beneficial to his game. The attacking prowess still plays up, he hits with incredible weight of shot on both his serve and forehand, he has the higher bounce which he prefers and his backhand is more shielded and less rushed.

So how has the clay gone? He’s only won a Masters title in Monte Carlo, made the final of a 500 in Barcelona, and now reached (at least) the quarters in Rome. He was out early in Madrid, but again, the altitude there means players with decent pace can rush him more successfully. That is exactly what Thiago Monteiro did, and the fact that he was a lefty allowed him to play higher-margin crosscourt forehands into that one-handed backhand.

In Rome and Paris I expect Tsitsipas to continue to rack up the wins.

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Nicolas Jarry Recent Form

This was a much-needed week for Jarry. We spoke about how poor he had been entering Rome in Europe on the red dirt in our preview of his match with Alexandre Muller (which he came through for us in a big way). I still feel his game is too strong on clay to be overlooked, and his play so far in the Eternal City has proven just that.

Tsitsipas knows that his style can bother him as well, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a close set or two in this match.

Jarry has to look to play with an ultra-aggressive mindset and needs to target the backhand early and as often as he possibly can – particularly in his service games when he starts with control of the point.

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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Nicolas Jarry H2H – Stat of the Match

Remember when I mentioned that surface speeds are more important for Tsitsipas than most? This head-to-head serves as a small sample illustration of just that.

In their three meetings that took place on grass or quick hard courts? Jarry went 3-0 against the current world No. 8. On slower hard courts or clay? That would have Tsitsipas leading 2-0.

With this match being played without altitude, in the evening, and on clay, I’m going to lean towards the pair of Tsitsipas wins being more relevant than the grass and Beijing wins of Jarry.

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