Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/12/24

For our first preview of the BNP Paribas Open on Tuesday, we have a Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jiri Lehecka prediction from the ATP draw. Lehecka’s win probability is just 36.5% while Tsitsipas is favoured to win at 1.51 odds. The handicap is 3 games and the total games line is 22.5.

For more previews from the tennis action on Tuesday, be sure to head over to the Expert Insights section!

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction: Tsitsipas in Ideal Conditions to Succeed

• Prediction: Tsitsipas -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.96
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on March 12th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

It can be tough to find value in the second weeks of grand slams and Masters tournaments, but I certainly think that betting on Tsitsipas here is the right move.

I have this closer to a four game handicap than three, with Tsitsipas just being a level above Lehecka. I trust his offensive game a bit more, his pedigree is higher, he plays a less volatile brand of tennis while still maintaining a powerful baseline game and it’s taken borderline elite talent this year to send him packing.

Read on for more expert insights.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Recent Form

For most players, the start Tsitsipas has had to 2024 would be seen as a positive. He’s only lost to some of the best players in the world and has only dropped two sets in his other matches.

For someone accustomed to being among the elite himself, however, I’m not sure the long time Greek No. 1 would see it that way. That said, he’s looked excellent this week, with his average margin of victory being over six games.

He’s also playing in conditions that suit his game (despite not having had an overwhelming amount of success here before), with the higher bounce being better for him and the slower courts making his one-handed backhand less vulnerable to being rushed and being an easy target for opponents.

There’s also the fact that he’s playing someone that he should beat and he’s taken care of those types of players with relative ease this season. Though he’s lost to Casper Ruud, Alex de Minaur (though he had a commanding 6-1 lead in that match), Taylor Fritz and Alexander Zverev, Tsitsipas hasn’t really struggled against someone like Lehecka.

He has weapons, but he’s also erratic, and Tsitsipas can match him offensively anyway.

Jiri Lehecka Recent Form

It’s been a much-needed week for the Czech, who had struggled after winning a title in Adelaide early on in the year.

There may have been some question marks surrounding him coming into Indian Wells, after his second set retirement in the quarterfinals in Dubai, but he’s played some strong tennis this week, coming back from a set down to beat an in-form Brandon Nakashima and then upset Andrey Rublev.

There is no doubting his talent, with the 22-year-old getting around the court decently, packing some punch behind his first serve and being able to fire away from the baseline as well.

His ability to sustain that level has always been his sore spot though. His unforced error count often climbs a bit too high and his backhand can break down as well. He’ll have to avoid that to have a chance, with Tsitsipas possessing plenty of firepower of his own and being a bit more consistent with it to boot.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jiri Lehecka H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have played twice before on hard courts, with Tsitsipas winning in three sets in Rotterdam in 2022 and then in straight sets at the Australian Open in 2023.

With conditions playing even slower here than those two events, I think we are likely to see more of the same on Tuesday.

Elo wise, even though Tsitsipas is a clay courter, he’s still 12th in blended hard court elo rating. That puts him over 100 points ahead of Lehecka. With his return game likely being more effective given the conditions, I’m fine laying the games in this one.

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