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tennis | Tuesday, August 2, 2022 7:22 AM (Revised at: Thursday, August 4, 2022 5:20 PM)

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Los Cabos, Jordan Thompson vs Yannick Hanfmann

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Los Cabos, Jordan Thompson vs Yannick Hanfmann
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Jordan Thompson vs Yannick Hanfmann Best Bet: Tuesday, August 2nd

For Tuesday’s selection from the men’s events, we head to the Pacific coast of North America to Los Cabos, where the action starts in the evening locally and overnight in the UK.

The matchup we’ll be breaking down features Aussie Jordan Thompson taking on Yannick Hanfmann, who kicks off his hard-court summer after finding some success the past few weeks at altitude on the clay in Switzerland and Austria.

In this article:

Jordan Thompson vs Yannick Hanfmann Preview

August 2nd, Time TBD

There are a few things that stand out about this match, with Thompson appearing to be an enticing bet for a few reasons.

The first is the ability and comfort on the surface. Despite having played college tennis, which is hard-court-centric, Hanfmann much prefers the clay. If at altitude, all the better. He does have a big first serve, but much of his game from the baseline is spin-heavy and that simply isn’t as effective on hard courts. In both Gstaad and Kitzbuhel, it wasn’t so much the pace behind the forehands that gave opponents trouble, but just how high the ball would bounce – right out of their strike zones – neutralising the ability to attack it.

This season, the German has played a handful of matches on hard courts. All were at the Australian Open, where he qualified and won in the first round (he beat a tired Thanasi Kokkinakis, who had just won his hometown tournament in Adelaide). Other than that, it’s been clay-court play (with the exception of Wimbledon and Halle on grass).

Despite Hanfmann having a 4-1 record on hard courts this season, the elo ratings tell the better story, with Thompson possessing an advantage of about 100 points in that regard.

Thompson hasn’t had the most success this season, but it’s worth noting he’s been drawn against a lot of quality players early on in draws (thus, the much stronger elo rating, which takes into consideration the quality of opposition). With the much flatter game suited to the surface, he should be able to handle this match with relative ease.

Jordan Thompson vs Yannick Hanfmann Best Bet

Just on ability and surface edge alone, Thompson is appealing as just a three-game favourite.

Yet it’s also worth noting that Hanfmann really appeared to be out of steam in his semifinal in Austria on the weekend.

Despite Filip Misolic being the player that had to play twice on Friday, it was Hanfmann who ended up fatiguing and crumbling in the third. While Misolic did find his legs feeling heavier first (he went from leading 6-2, 2-1* to trailing 6-2, 2-6, 1-4*), Hanfmann was sweating profusely, breathing heavily and blew a double break lead in that semifinal.

There are certainly going to be fatigue concerns entering this one, especially with a decent amount of travel involved from central Europe to the west coast of Mexico.

Between the potential fatigue and travel struggles, the game not nearly as effective on the hard courts and the fact he hasn’t played on hard courts since January (all while playing a natural hard courter in Thompson), I’m happy to play the favourite on the games handicap in this one.

  • Selection: Thompson -3 Games
  • Odds: 1.93 (Marathon Bet)
  • Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 09:00 pm on August 2nd, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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