tennis | Tuesday, November 1, 2022 8:45 AM

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Paris, Jack Draper vs Arthur Rinderknech

Jon Reid

Jack Draper vs Arthur Rinderknech Best Bet: Tuesday, November 1st

Well, that was an even more impressive win than expected from Richard Gasquet on Monday, as he demolished Alex Molcan in a matchup that really did favour the Frenchman.

Onto Tuesday, where we’ll once again look to exploit a matchup advantage that doesn’t appear to be baked into the price in the market nearly enough, as we delve into the match between Jack Draper and Arthur Rinderknech to find our selection for Tuesday from Paris.

In this article:

Jack Draper vs Arthur Rinderknech Preview
Jack Draper vs Arthur Rinderknech Best Bet

Jack Draper vs Arthur Rinderknech Preview

November 1st, 14:00 UK Time

In this matchup of two big servers with strong forehands, there are a few things that set the young Brit apart that should give him a much larger edge than the current odds would imply. At his current pricing (using Pinnacle’s odds), Draper is expected to win roughly 61% of the time.

That affords the young gun plenty of respect, but I’m still not sure it goes far enough.

When I look at the style each player employs in this one, it’s hard to see what exactly Rinderknech does better.

His biggest strengths are a wash at best, with Draper also able to find plenty of quick, cheap points behind his big, booming serve and forehand. Yet he falls short of his opponent in other respects. Draper is a far better mover, has a steadier backhand wing, and has progressed by leaps and bounds on return this season, something he now also does far more effectively than his French opponent.

Finally, the aforementioned edge on the backhand wing? Even more crucial, with this being a lefty vs. righty matchup. With these two playing crosscourt rallies on their forehands into the other player’s backhand, I’m much more confident in Draper to hold his own in those situations than I am in Rinderknech.

Jack Draper vs Arthur Rinderknech Best Bet

With the matchup firmly favouring Draper for my money, it’s time to look at his biggest weakness and if it could come into play.

His endurance has been an issue dating back to last year, and while that’s improved and he’s made deep runs at the Challenger level, we still see him break down from time to time at the main tour level.

That may come into play later in the week, but with this being his first match, and since he’s playing a guy who isn’t the strongest returner – which should help keep points on serve relatively short – the likelihood of him breaking down physically in this one is far less of a concern than it would be against someone like Frances Tiafoe (who he’d play in his next match should he beat Rinderknech).

I have him winning this one far more often than not, especially on slower courts, where his stronger return game becomes more relevant.