tennis | Monday, October 3, 2022 1:07 PM

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Tokyo, Kamil Majchrzak vs Sho Shimabukuro

Jon Reid

Kamil Majchrzak vs Sho Shimabukuro Best Bet: Tuesday, October 4th

For Tuesday’s men’s selection, it’s off to the other 500-level event in Tokyo. Though there may be millions in prize money and 500 points on the line, the field resembles that of a 250-point event much more than a 500 – especially when held up next to the other 500-point event being played in Kazakhstan this week.

With that said, there is still the opportunity to find value in the field, especially in matches between two players one normally wouldn’t find in these fields. Such is the case in the match between Kamil Majchrzak and Sho Shimabukuro, and it’ll be that match we preview for our bet.

In this article:

Kamil Majchrzak vs Sho Shimabukuro Preview
Kamil Majchrzak vs Sho Shimabukuro Best Bet

Kamil Majchrzak vs Sho Shimabukuro Preview

October 4th, 7:30 UK Time

Odd to see the handicap where it is in this matchup. In Majchrzak, we have a very strong Challenger Tour player that sometimes pops up in ATP Tour draws or at least qualifying draws. With Shimabukuro, we’re looking at an ITF Tour grinder, who is by no means some up-and-coming prospect, as he’s already 25 years old. His Challenger appearances this season? Disastrous, with the exception of a run in Nonthaburi against a subpar playing field.

In terms of power rating these men on a quick hard court, Majchrzak is leagues ahead of his Japanese counterpart.

In fact, consider the hard-court losses the Pole has in 2022 on hard courts. Alex de Minauar, Emil Ruusuvuori, Benjamin Bonzi, Taylor Fritz, Roberto Bautista Agut, Alejandro Tabilo, Richard Gasquet, Fernando Verdasco, Hamad Medjedovic and Marc Andrea Huesler. Every single one of them is either a strong prospect, established tour-level pro, or a former tour-level player that can still find a high level.

Not one of those losses would be considered a poor one for the 26-year-old, who has still managed to post a winning record on the surface.

With his game playing up on the surface and his solidity from the baseline, backing Majchrzak in this spot is something I am more than willing to do at the current handicap.

Kamil Majchrzak vs Sho Shimabukuro Best Bet

The gulf between these two men is just too large for me to consider a -3.5 game handicap to be accurate.

It takes a much more skilled and multi-dimensional player than Shimabukuro to take down Majchrzak on most days (key to remember here is that we’re evaluating a range of outcomes).

The price point of 1.86 might be a tad more reasonable had this been a -4 game handicap, though I would make the case it should be closer to 1.80 at -4 games and have this near even money crossing that key number and being at -4.5 games.

I’m more than happy to take a cheap price for a number under 4 games.