tennis | Tuesday, August 23, 2022 8:23 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, August 23, 2022 8:24 AM)

Tuesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Winston Salem, Mikael Ymer vs Marc Andrea Huesler

Jon Reid

Mikael Ymer vs Marc Andrea Huesler Best Bet: Tuesday, August 23rd

Monday’s selection from the men’s event in Winston Salem didn’t go ahead, as Tomas Martin Etcheverry withdrew, meaning he was replaced in the draw and the bets voided. A shame too, as his condition was a big part of the handicap.

Onto Tuesday, where we’ll take a look at a match between Mikael Ymer and Marc Andrea Huesler.

In this article:

Mikael Ymer vs Marc Andrea Huesler Preview
Mikael Ymer vs Marc Andrea Huesler Best Bet

Mikael Ymer vs Marc Andrea Huesler Preview

August 23rd, 22:30 UK Time

After an impressive first-round victory against Federico Coria, Ymer has a chance to keep a decent hard-court summer going with a run in Winston Salem. Taking on Huesler, I actually have the Swede as a larger favourite in this one.

The fact is, these two are on totally different levels, with Ymer being a legitimate tour-level player, while for my money Huesler is still a Challenger Tour competitor.

While Ymer plays elite defence, is incredibly consistent and has a strong return game, Huesler is incredibly erratic and once the rally is extended, he’s far more prone to committing unforced errors. On hard courts, he can be rushed as well, and his game at the net, as well as on his backhand are shaky at best.

That’s the ideal game style to back Ymer against. If Huesler isn’t landing an incredibly high number of his first serves, he’s going to find himself under constant pressure in his service games.

Statistically, Ymer actually has a higher hold plus break percentage on hard courts in 2022, despite playing all but one of his events at the top level (the lone Challenger he played was a Challenger 125, those that draw the best fields). The Swiss, by contrast, will be playing his first main draw match on hard courts at tour level in 2022.

The discrepancy in elo ratings is also very telling here. Ymer has a better rating by over 200 points, which is a much sharper contrast than the 1.52 odds would indicate in this position.

Mikael Ymer vs Marc Andrea Huesler Best Bet

Looking at the form of these two players, you’d also come away believing that this handicap should be much higher. Huesler has beaten two incredibly out of form players (Matthew Ebden and Joao Sousa) and two younger players without weapons that are struggling in Challenger Tour events (Govind Nanda and Shintaro Mochizuki). A routine loss to Ugo Humbert and a loss to Benoit Paire – who has openly stated he’s having a lot of trouble finding the passion to play the sport at the highest level – aren’t exactly inspiring either.

Ymer, on the other hand, reached the semifinals at the ATP 500 in Washington and the quarterfinals of the Vancouver Challenger, before routinely dispatching Coria last round.

Finally, if you’re worried about motivational concerns, keep in mind that Ymer was a finalist at this very event a year ago. That means we know he’s here to win it, he has points to defend and he’s clearly comfortable in these conditions. With no points to defend next week (he lost in the first round in 2021 at the US Open), he doesn’t have much to lose playing a few more days this week to defend his finalist points.

This handicap is off by quite a bit and I’m glad to only have to give up three games as a head start, at nearly even money.