Botic van de Zandschulp vs Rinky Hijikata Prediction, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/20/24

We head from qualifying to the main draw of tennis on Wednesday for the men at the Miami Open. Our first preview of the day features a match first up on the court in Botic van de Zandschulp vs Rinky Hijikata. Hijikata’s win probability is 42.4% while van de Zandschulp is favored to win at 1.64 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5. Our van de Zandschulp vs Hijikata prediction is for Hijikata to win. 

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van de Zandschulp vs Hijikata Prediction: Struggling World No. 77 on Upset Alert on Wednesday

• Prediction: Hijikata to win
• Best Odds: 2.36
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on March 20th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

It’s funny how trajectories work in tennis. Despite van de Zandschulp being ranked a few spots higher than his counterpart in this match, I’m actually a tad more optimistic about Hijikata’s prospects than his.

A lot of that has to do with the fact that he’s been getting beaten with regularity at the main tour level fairly early in tournaments for quite some time now, while Hijikata had been winning at the Challenger level and the lower 250 rung on the ATP Tour ladder.

I do think van de Zandschulp has the edge in pure talent in this matchup, but Hijikata’s solidity and court coverage are both pluses in his column. With how leaky the Dutchman’s backhand can be at times, those are important characteristics in this one.

Hijikata may not be the favorite, but I certainly think he’s as likely to win on Wednesday as van de Zandschulp. My van de Zandschulp vs Hijikata Prediction is for Hijikata to win in the moneyline market. 

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Botic van de Zandschulp Recent Form

The tough times for van de Zandschulp have carried over into the 2024 season. After winning just two main draw matches or more at an event from May until the end of the season last year, the Dutchman has yet to win back-to-back main draw matches so far this year and has just a single win on the tour since Australia.

His dips in form within matches have simply happened far too often, offsetting any kind of decent stretches of serving he has managed to put up.

The backhand in particular tends to break down too often when his game abandons him. When his game is on, one can see why he was able to reach the top-25 in the past. He’s got a decently well-rounded game when that backhand holds up. When it doesn’t, however, he can struggle to overcome the unforced errors.

Playing with no form entering this match and against someone who has elevated his game in the last year or so and plays a consistent style doesn’t bode well for the 28-year-old.

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Rinky Hijikata Recent Form

After a few quarterfinals this season on the main tour in Brisbane and Delray Beach, recent weeks have seen Hijikata hit a patch of regression.

It’s a decent reminder that the jump to the main tour level can be a big one – especially for someone without raw power or a discernible way to end rallies with ease.

Nonetheless, Hijikata has vaulted his way into the top 100 for a reason and he’s become more adept at playing on slower surfaces (though that shouldn’t be relevant in Miami after it appears the courts were sped up last year and likely still playing that way this year).

He constructs points well, knows when to go for his forehand to finish points, and has added to his first serve, where he can generate more free points on hard courts.

If he can look to target that backhand with a steady barrage of groundstrokes, he should be able to make this a very competitive match and come away victorious.

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Botic van de Zandschulp vs Rinky Hijikata H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meetings between these two guys. We still see van de Zandschulp with a decent edge in hard court elo rating, even though he’s won very little outside of Basel and Paris in the fall on the surface.

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