tennis | Sreda, Oktobar 5, 2022 7:52 AM

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Astana, Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pavel Kotov

Jon Reid

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pavel Kotov Best Bet: Wednesday, October 5th

Well, the men’s selection comes through after a sloppy first set (that Kamil Majchrzak still managed to win) and a dominant second, bringing us to three winners from three selections to start the week.

We’ll put that to the test on Wednesday, as – much like Monday – we’ll be relying on a relatively big underdog to come through. Always worth noting during win streaks that it’s all about trying to find poor prices in the markets and exploit them. Winning streaks are nice, but if we can successfully identify poor prices, we’ll win consistently.

That said, let’s jump into the match in Astana on Wednesday featuring Roberto Bautista Agut and Pavel Kotov!

In this article:

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pavel Kotov Preview
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pavel Kotov Best Bet

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pavel Kotov Preview

October 5th, 10:30 UK Time

A matchup of two underdog winners will take centre stage (or court in this case!) on Wednesday, as Bautista Agut looks to build on his win against Felix Auger Aliassime, while Kotov is looking to do the same after beating Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

It should be an adjustment for both men, and for the same reason. Their first-round opponents were both extremely talented, but with volatile games from the baseline, whereas these two are both rock solid and play with strong point construction, with each shot serving a purpose.

While the veteran’s exploits are well known at the upper echelons of the game, many will come into this matchup not knowing much about the Russian. Kotov’s game is a pretty well-rounded one, and it’s shown with his ability to play across the tour’s surfaces.

His baseline game is extremely consistent and he moves well enough to succeed on slower courts, while his height helps him dial up the pace on his first serve – a pretty key asset in quicker conditions.

I don’t disagree with Bautista Agut being the favourite in this contest, but I will take issue with just how heavily favoured the market has made him.

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pavel Kotov Best Bet

With the court conditions playing slower, a quality player that much of the market that only bets ATP Tour level tournaments may not be all that familiar with and a stylistic matchup that doesn’t benefit the Spaniard by nearly as much as his first-round matchup, I’m confident that this price is far enough off to justify a bet on Kotov.

I’ll look to take the sets as opposed to the games in this one for a few reasons. First, Kotov can be annoyingly defeatist when behind. That kind of thing could very well lead to a tanked set – which are always the worst when backing underdogs to cover the games handicap.

Secondly, with slower court conditions in Astana, it will be easier to find breaks of serve, which leads me to believe, each half game on the handicap isn’t worth as much as it would be this week in Tokyo.

With the talent Kotov has to offer, he could very well send this match three sets. He may not cover the games handicap, but that won’t make a difference if we’ve already cashed our wager!

Selection: Kotov +1.5 Sets (Listed as “Bautista Agut to win in Straight Sets – No” under the player tab)
Best Odds: 2.20 (Bet365)
Stakes: 2/10
Bonus: Kotov to win at 4.33 odds at Bet365 with 1/10 stakes

Odds as at 9:30 am on October 5th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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