tennis | Wednesday, August 24, 2022 7:20 AM

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: US Open Men’s Qualifying, Enzo Couacaud vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida

Jon Reid

Enzo Couacaud vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Best Bet: Wednesday, August 24th

Well, the larger stakes bets just continue to lose at an unprecedented rate. Mikael Ymer looked positively lost on return, despite entering that match boasting a 31% break rate on tour this year.

Onto Wednesday to see if we can find a winner from US Open qualification in a match between Enzo Couacaud and Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida.

In this article:

Enzo Couacaud vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Preview
Enzo Couacaud vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Best Bet

Enzo Couacaud vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Preview

August 24th, 19:00 UK Time

It’s US Open qualifying time, and for many players involved in the draw, it could present an incredible opportunity. Considering how tough it is to scratch out a living for so many of these players at the Challenger Tour level, the $21,000 USD on offer for a first round appearance and about $80,000 to reach the main draw, represent prize money that can help pay for months of travel expenses and help alleviate the financial stress that affects so many at this level.

In the matchup between Enzo Couacaud and Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida, we’re going to keep things simple, with Couacaud being a far more experienced player on hard courts than his Brazilian opponent.

Couacaud not only has more experience and comfort on the surface, but he has much more power behind his serve and forehands and is less reliant on topspin and defensive abilities than Pucinelli de Almeida.

The Brazil native hasn’t even played on an outdoor hard court professionally since the 2020 season – and even then, all his matches were at the lowest level of professional men’s tennis on the ITF Tour (going just 13-7).

Enzo Couacaud vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Best Bet

I have no issue backing Couacaud to win this match without dropping a set, with the gulf between the quality of these two on a hard court.

The Frenchman’s losses this summer on hard courts have come to hard-court specialists Emilio Gomez and Radu Albot, and when Couacaud has been priced up in this range as a favourite (1.25-1.50) in his last few hard-court tournaments, he’s dropped a set just once (to Govind Nanda) in the five matches that fit the bill.

Let’s think about this from a percentage-based perspective. I have Couacaud winning this match without dropping a set about 66% of the time. To break even in the long run, this wager would only need to win 58% of the time. A nice edge to try and capitalise on.