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tennis | Friday, March 24, 2023 8:56 AM

Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Miami, Yibing Wu vs Diego Schwartzman

Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Miami, Yibing Wu vs Diego Schwartzman
IMAGO / GEPA pictures

Yibing Wu vs Diego Schwartzman Best Bet: Friday, March 24th

A tough injury to Juncheng Shang derailed Thursday’s selection. Looked great to start, as he was dominating Adrian Mannarino through a set and three games. He tweaked something in his foot, however, required two medical timeouts and never looked the same. Unfortunately, he didn’t retire, which would’ve voided the bet at Bet365, but these things happen.

To end the week, we’ll look at a second-round tilt between Yibing Wu and Diego Schwartzman.

In this article:

Yibing Wu vs Diego Schwartzman Preview

March 24th, 16:30 (UK Time)

It’s been a swift fall from grace for the 30-year-old from Argentina. After losing his last six matches of the season (between the ATP Tour and Davis Cup, not including the Laver Cup), Schwartzman has won just two of his 10 matches in 2023.

Even those were thoroughly unimpressive, beating a Challenger Tour player in Oleksii Krutykh in four sets in Australia, as the Ukrainian was clearly struggling in the heat, then beating his good friend, but clay-court specialist Federico Coria at Indian Wells.

He’s lost his other eight matches to this point, and none have been particularly close, with the exception of one (his loss to Nicolas Jarry in Santiago). He’s never been a big hitter, but his backhand – the one shot he could trouble players with – has lost all consistency, and his inability to produce the depth or angles with his groundstrokes has led to so many of his shots being attackable.

As for Wu, the former junior standout and boys champion at the U.S. Open has burst onto the scene in the last 8-10 months, winning a slew of Challenger Tour events and specialising in quick-court play.

While Miami doesn’t present the fastest conditions on tour, they’re certainly better for his game than the mud-slow courts that were on offer at Indian Wells, and he does possess an incredible combination of weapons, consistency and athleticism.

I’m happy to back the young gun to get this done in a relatively routine fashion. Until Schwartzman proves that he’s found a semblance of his former level of play, I can’t let relatively short games handicaps pass here with a talent like Wu.

Yibing Wu vs Diego Schwartzman Best Bet

I have this handicap set in the -5 range at the moment.

From the massive form gap, the difference in weapons the two possess, the fact that these courts are slightly quicker than those at Indian Wells, which should result in Wu being a tad more comfortable here, to the fact that Schwartzman has lost the vast majority of his best-of-three set matches this season by fairly wide margins, I don’t see a reason to have this number lower than -5.

Each half-game from -3.5 to -5 in tennis is a relatively important move, considering the most common set scores in the sport are 6-4 and 6-3. With the number at -3.5, we have a fairly large edge by my numbers, and a much better chance to cover this in a third set than a -5 handicap would present.

  • Selection: Wu -3.5 Games
  • Best Odds: 1.87 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 8/10

Odds as at 12:15 am on March 24th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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