tennis | Tuesday, September 24, 2024 7:49 AM

Zhizhen Zhang vs Marin Cilic Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 9/24/24

Jon Reid

We’ll stick to the Hangzhou Open for our first ATP preview on Tuesday. It’s Zhizhen Zhang vs Marin Cilic for the trophy in the final.

Cilic’s win probability is in the 45% range, while Zhang is favored to win at 1.75 odds. The handicap is one game and the total game line is 23.

Jon Reid’s Zhang vs Cilic prediction is for the match to go over the total.

Zhizhen Zhang vs Marin Cilic Prediction: Final Should Be Tight Contest Between Two Big Servers

Prediction: Over 23 Games & 1st Set Over 12.5
Best Odds: 1.88 & 3.80
Bookmaker: Pinnacle & Unibet
Stakes: 2/10 & 1/10

Odds updated at midnight UK Time on September 24th, 2024.

go with our tip at UnibetAfter narrowly getting our bet through in the semifinal, we’ll go back to Zhang’s match in the final, though I’m not going to speculate on who wins and I think him as a slight favourite is the right price this time around.

Cilic’s serve has been clicking and he does seem to have shaken off the rust from his return from injury. There doesn’t seem to be a better spot for him to return to tour than a smaller event on quicker courts and that’s exactly what he’s done, making a splash this week with a run to the final.

This one should be a serve-oriented affair. Each has put up monstrous numbers in terms of first serve win percentage consistently in Hangzhou and neither is particularly strong on return. We’re seeing a total of 23 games – a half game over the more typical 22.5 on the ATP Tour – but I’m not sure that’s enough. I do think this should be closer to the 23.5 mark for the total and will have a go at the 23.

I also believe that a valuation under 30% for the first set to go to a tiebreak is far too low. Cilic has seen his fair share of tiebreaks in his last few matches against guys that can serve a bit bigger in these conditions and once Zhang came up against a more powerful, aggressive opponent, one of his two sets went the distance as well.

Strong servers, weaker returners and tiebreaks played against other servers this week at a decent clip? I’ll take that price that clears 3.60 for sure.

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Zhizhen Zhang Recent Form

As I mentioned yesterday, away from the bigger tournaments where tougher draws have been costly for him, Zhang has been shining this week. The semifinal was probably a bit closer than he would’ve liked, but he was playing a surging and in-form Bu Yunchaokete, so I think any sort of straight sets victory was welcome.

This matchup is a tougher one to crack. Cilic is obviously the much better player, or at least has been the much better player for a lot longer. Where is his level now? It’s tough to say. His pace, however, can hurt Zhang. The same can be said about Zhang’s pace for Cilic though, and so this could be a match that comes down to a single break or who performs better and makes fewer mistakes in the tiebreaks.

That to me leads me to sticking with the overs here. I think the market knows these things, but I don’t think they’ve bumped this total high enough.

Marin Cilic Recent Form

At 36 years old, I don’t think Cilic can be upset with how his return from an injury has gone. He was gone over six months and has come back and reached a tour level final in just his third event.

His first tournament back was at the Challenger level, where he won a match and then lost to his in-form countryman Duje Ajdukovic. The second tournament saw two wins and his most questionable result in the quarters in Cassis (also a Challenger) and then there’s this week, where the veteran has managed to work his way into this match, dropping just two sets (one of them the very first one he played in Hangzhou).

The form is fine and the rust appears to have been shaken off. The question is, does he have enough to compete physically in this one and will he be able to generate any opportunities on return?

Zhizhen Zhang vs Marin Cilic H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between these two.

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