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We’re into the round of 16 at the Qatar TotalEngeries Open in Doha. It’s the first WTA 1000 tournament on the schedule, as we’re getting closer to crowning a champion.
Let’s take a look at Qinwen Zheng vs Leylah Fernandez in a matchup of two very strong young talents.
For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.
Our Zheng vs Fernandez prediction is Zheng -3 games.
In this article:
Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on February 14th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Now, however, I think that Zheng has cleaned up her game enough that she deserves to be an even larger favourite than we’re seeing at the moment. Has she eradicated all the mistakes and sloppy play from her game? Definitely not. She certainly has improved in that regard though.
Up that first serve percentage, and I think Zheng will be ready to compete with the elite of the women’s tour.
Fortunately for her, she’s not taking on one of the bigger servers or power players that have tended to trouble her in recent times. Wednesday she plays someone in a tier of talent that she’s been beating with regularity of late.
Read on for more expert insights.
Possibly the form player of the season relative to expectations so far, Zheng has long been talked about as a candidate to break out and make some waves on the top women’s circuit.
Her power is big enough to easily be considered among the elite in the game, and she can find so many cheap points with her serve. Then there’s the fact that her touch isn’t as much of a weakness as it is for other players with her raw power, and though she isn’t the swiftest of movers on the court, Zheng moves fairly well for someone of her height.
There’s no doubt that the power is still fairly raw and could use a tad more refinement, but the improvements she’s already made are already visible in her results.
She was the finalist from a wide-open top half of the draw in Melbourne at the year’s first grand slam, and since early August, the only players to beat her are Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina and Beatriz Haddad Maia. Those are all top-20 players in the rankings and three of them are arguably the best in the world on hard courts.
There’s no doubt she’ll be the one dictating play more often than not on Wednesday and I expect her to once more add another win on a hard court against someone that isn’t among the very best the women’s game has to offer.
Fernandez may have ended 2023 on a nice run, winning a title in Hong Kong and going to the final in Nanchang, as well as helping Canada win the Billie Jean King Cup, but I’m not nearly as convinced as the market is by her form.
For starters, those two runs on the WTA Tour were against some of the weaker fields you’ll find, and her start to this year has done little to back up those successes.
Her wins have come against Daniela Seguel, Sara Bejlek (a young talent, but still far more comfortable on clay), Ludmilla Samsonova, who has been pretty erratic to start the year and Paula Badosa, who led her 6-0 and has some physical questions after a recent retirement.
I think there’s a serious overvaluation on the 21-year-old in the betting markets and I’m happy to have a go at opposing her.
The Canadian won the lone meeting between these two a few years back in Mexico. That came by the slimmest of margins in a third-set tiebreak and happened long before the improvements we’ve seen Zheng make.
Remove the altitude that can make an erratic power hitter like Zheng sail her shots a bit more, and there are a multitude of reasons to believe that the Chinese pro has improved by enough to level the score.
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