tennis | Wednesday, February 1, 2023 9:57 AM

Wednesday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Challenger Koblenz, Zhizhen Zhang vs Zdenek Kolar

Jon Reid

Zhizhen Zhang vs Zdenek Kolar Best Bet: Wednesday, February 1st

What a tug of war that was in Koblenz, as we got the over to cash, but lost out on Topo to win by the slimmest of margins (8-6 in the third-set tiebreak). Absolute fine with both plays, as I think the assessment of it being a closer match than the odds indicated was spot on.

Onto Wednesday, where we’ll look at the matchup between Zhizhen Zhang and Zdenek Kolar from Koblenz.

In this article:

Zhizhen Zhang vs Zdenek Kolar Preview
Zhizhen Zhang vs Zdenek Kolar Best Bet

Zhizhen Zhang vs Zdenek Kolar Preview

February 1st, 13:30 (UK Time)

Big mismatch here in terms of hard-court abilities and with courts playing slower than expected this week, I’m happy to get involved and back the favourite here with a handicap I think is unreasonably low.

Zhang has been surging for a few months now, and Koblenz is a terrific opportunity for him to get his 2023 season kickstarted. He was 0-2 during the Australian summer, but one would be hard-pressed to fault him for losses to the massive serving, big hitters like Alexei Popyrin and Ben Shelton (he even took the American phenom deep into a fifth set).

His blend of rally tolerance, well-timed and controlled aggression, as well as his athleticism and ability to work the ball around the court effectively make him a really tough out at the Challenger Tour level. His lack of a real potent weapon has hindered his progress and hurt his ability to break through to the main tour, but that shouldn’t be an issue in this particular match against a lighter-serving clay courter whose singles career has been sputtering since the start of 2022.

Kolar hasn’t looked completely hapless this year on hard courts, but his quality of competition leaves something to be desired, and his metrics on serve are rather uninspiring.

Without the ability to outlast Zhang, the serve to find cheap points and a game that is far too topspin-heavy for the conditions, I’m not sure why this handicap isn’t up around the five-game mark. I understand that is a steep number for men’s tennis played indoors, but on courts slower than normal and against this level of opposition, Zhang should cover the 4.5 games more often than not.

Zhizhen Zhang vs Zdenek Kolar Best Bet

With Zhang’s abilities on return, his strong blend of rally tolerance and attacking play, as well as his considerable surface advantage, I’m happy to back him on the handicap at anything under five games here.

The -4 games market comes in at the moment at 1.88 odds, but selling off a half game (a rather important one, granted) for 24 cents on the dollar at Pinnacle is the smarter move. I understand some people may not like the idea of losing that insurance of having the bet void if it lands right on four games, but that is an outrageously expensive half game to buy.

I’ll get a bit more aggressive here and take the -4.5-game handicap.