Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo Prediction, Picks, News, H2H, May 17th

The semifinals for the ATP singles draw are set at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, with Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo being first up. Our Zverev vs Tabilo prediction is below!

Can the new tournament favorite book his spot in the final? Or is Tabilo going to keep his scintillating form going? Let’s dig in. Tabilo’s win probability is about 25% while Zverev is favored to win at 1.28 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.

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Zverev vs Tabilo Prediction: Pass on Favourable Matchup for Heavy Favourite

Not a lot to love here with Zverev’s price being so expensive. The -3.5 game handicap coming in at an expensive 1.80 feels like the most attackable market, but even then that feels more prediction-based rather than trying to find inefficient prices.

Much like the last match against Fritz, it feels like Zverev matches up perfectly here. With Tabilo not having the cache of Fritz though, we get 1.28 odds to win rather than something in the 1.60-1.65 region. Our Zverev vs Tabilo recommendation is to pass on this match.

Feels like an easy enough pass for the first singles match of Friday.

Alexander Zverev Recent Form

The 2017 champion has been on a roll in the last week or so, going 8/8 in sets won and only needing more than 10 games to win a set twice.

The game is well suited for success here, with a strong serve to find cheap points even if it isn’t the quickest of courts, a real solid backhand (which could prove decisive in neutralizing the big, lefty forehand of his opponent), decent movement and excellent defense.

That last point is another potential key to victory for him, with Tabilo possessing one heck of a game, but also being rather volatile from time to time (the reason it’s taken until now for him to realize his top-25 potential).

With Zverev being the better player, more solid, and having the much better pedigree at this level, as well as having a few key matchup advantages, I don’t think there’s much value in opposing him, even at odds around the 4.00 mark.

Alejandro Tabilo Recent Form

One of the best stories of 2024, Tabilo has long been considered talented enough to be among the game’s best, but just couldn’t get past wildly erratic matches plaguing his game far too often.

Though 2024 feels like a down year for men’s tennis, his level has been incredible, with an ATP 250 title won, another Challenger Tour trophy, and now a best-ever Masters 1000 result for the Chilean.

He hasn’t dropped a set this week either, with his lefty serve and forehand combination not just hitting through a lot of his competition, but the spin he can inject making those shots even more effective.

He’ll have to be at his best once more on Friday though, and his rally tolerance and newfound consistency will certainly be put to the test.

Zverev vs Tabilo H2H – Stat of the Match

The success for the lefty has been so new that these two have never crossed paths on the professional circuit before. With Zverev being on the main tour from such a young age and Tabilo never sustaining success long enough to be a consistent main tour pro, this isn’t all that shocking.

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