Arouca vs Nacional Prediction & Match Preview – Saturday, 21 February

Arouca vs Nacional prediction and match preview for Saturday, 21 February. As we look ahead to this intriguing clash in Liga Portugal, Arouca will host Nacional at the Municipal de Arouca. This match is set to kick off at 16:30, and both teams will be eager to secure vital points in their league campaigns.

Arouca, playing at home, will aim to use their familiarity with the Municipal de Arouca to gain an advantage over Nacional. Meanwhile, Nacional will be looking to upset the hosts and climb the league standings. With both teams striving for success, this encounter promises to be a competitive fixture in Liga Portugal.

Arouca vs Nacional: Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Arouca Draw No Bet	1.9

Arouca come into this match with a psychological edge, having won their last three encounters with Nacional, including a tight 2-1 away victory recently. With both teams fielding strong line-ups and Arouca’s consistent performance, our recommended betting tip is ‘Arouca Draw No Bet’. This tip offers excellent value while mitigating risk in case the match ends in a draw.

• Arouca have scored in 73% of their matches this season, showcasing their reliable attack.
• Arouca’s recent victory against Vitória de Guimarães highlights their current upward momentum.
• Nacional’s defensive lapses in recent meetings with Arouca suggest they may struggle to keep a clean sheet.

Betting Odds

In this Liga Portugal clash, Arouca are priced as slight favourites with odds of 2.31, reflecting their home advantage at the Municipal de Arouca. Nacional, however, are not far behind with odds of 2.98, indicating a closely contested match-up.

Betting Tip	Odds
Arouca to win	2.31
Draw	3.31
Nacional to win	2.98

The draw is also a tempting option at 3.31, suggesting that bookmakers anticipate a tight encounter. For those looking to bet, the odds on both teams to score and the over 2.5 goals market could offer some intriguing value given the attacking potential on both sides.

Arouca: Analysis & Recent Performance

Arouca’s recent form has been mixed, with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. Their ability to score remains a strong point, as evidenced by ten goals netted across these fixtures, averaging 2.00 goals per game. However, defensive lapses have been apparent, with seven goals conceded, highlighting a need for better defensive cohesion.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Casa Pia AC	Arouca	3 – 2 (Loss)	Liga Portugal	14 Feb 2026
Arouca	Vitoria de Guimaraes	3 – 2 (Win)	Liga Portugal	7 Feb 2026
Rio Ave	Arouca	0 – 3 (Win)	Liga Portugal	31 Jan 2026
Arouca	Sporting CP	1 – 2 (Loss)	Liga Portugal	24 Jan 2026
AVS Futebol SAD	Arouca	0 – 1 (Win)	Liga Portugal	17 Jan 2026

Recent Form:
Arouca’s attack has been consistently potent, with Alfonso Trezza leading the charge as the top scorer with seven goals this season. Despite their attacking prowess, their defence has been a concern, with only two clean sheets in the last five games. This inconsistency at the back has affected their overall win ratio, which stands at 60% in the last five matches.

Currently sitting 12th in the league, Arouca have accumulated 23 points. Their home form has been less convincing, with only two wins out of the last five home matches, resulting in a home win ratio of 40%. The team needs to capitalise on their home advantage more effectively to improve their standing in the league.

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Arouca: Suspensions & Injuries

Arouca face a significant challenge with the potential absence of Fally Mayulu due to a hip injury, and Pedro Santos, who is also listed as doubtful with an unspecified issue. These injuries could notably impact Arouca’s attacking capabilities, as Mayulu is integral to their forward line. Without him, Arouca might struggle to maintain their usual attacking fluidity, prompting coach Vasco Seabra to consider tactical adjustments.

The absence of Pedro Santos could further strain Arouca’s midfield depth. His unavailability may force a reshuffle, with potentially less experienced players stepping into critical roles. This could affect Arouca’s ability to control the midfield tempo and provide defensive cover.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Fally Mayulu	Hip injury	Doubtful
Pedro Santos	Unknown	Doubtful

With these injuries, Arouca might rely on players like Ivan Barbero and Alfonso Trezza to step up and fill the void. Their ability to adapt and perform will be crucial in mitigating the impact of these absences. The tactical adjustments might involve a more conservative approach, focusing on defensive solidity to counteract the weakened attacking prowess.

These absences could influence betting markets, as Arouca’s diminished squad depth and potential lack of attacking options might alter their odds against a competitive Nacional side. Bettors may see value in Nacional capitalising on Arouca’s vulnerabilities.

Arouca: Key Players

Arouca’s offensive threat is spearheaded by their top scorer Alfonso Trezza, who has netted 7 goals so far. Trezza’s sharp instincts in front of goal and ability to exploit spaces make him pivotal in breaking down Nacional’s defence. His partnership with Nais Djouahra and Ivan Barbero in the forward line promises a dynamic attacking front that can unsettle opponents through pace and precision.

In midfield, Taichi Fukui and Hyun-Ju Lee are expected to dictate play, with Fukui’s vision and Lee’s energy crucial for both defensive cover and initiating attacks. Espen van Ee, playing a more defensive role, will provide stability, ensuring the midfield remains balanced.

Expected lineup for Arouca

• Goalkeeper: Ignacio de Arruabarrena
• Defenders: Tiago Esgaio, Bas Kuipers, Javi Sánchez, José Fontán
• Midfielders: Espen van Ee, Taichi Fukui, Hyun-Ju Lee
• Forwards: Alfonso Trezza, Nais Djouahra, Ivan Barbero

Defensively, Arouca rely on the solidity of Javi Sánchez and José Fontán at the back. Tiago Esgaio and Bas Kuipers offer width and support, contributing to both defensive duties and forward thrusts. The tactical impact of these players is significant as they aim to maintain a compact structure while exploiting counter-attacking opportunities.

Arouca: Tactics & Formation

Arouca Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: Unspecified, likely 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Ivan Barbero
• Midfield Pivot: Taichi Fukui and Espen van Ee
• Defensive Strength: Two clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: High possession and dynamic midfield play.

Arouca have recently shown a preference for a flexible formation, potentially a 4-2-3-1, which allows them to maintain control in midfield and provide defensive cover. With Taichi Fukui and Espen van Ee anchoring the midfield, Arouca aim to dominate possession and dictate the tempo of the game.

Defensively, Arouca’s line-up includes experienced players like Javi Sánchez and José Fontán, who are crucial in maintaining their defensive shape. This set-up has contributed to achieving two clean sheets in their last five matches, indicating a level of defensive resilience.

Offensively, Arouca rely heavily on Ivan Barbero, supported by the creative talents of Alfonso Trezza and Hyun-Ju Lee. Their strategy often involves high possession play, looking to exploit spaces with quick transitions and dynamic movement in the attacking third.

Nacional: Analysis & Recent Performance

Nacional’s recent form has been inconsistent, with only one victory in their last five matches. This was a convincing 4-0 win over Rio Ave, showcasing their potential offensive prowess. However, defeats against Sporting CP (2-1) and Gil Vicente (2-1) highlight defensive vulnerabilities that have been a recurring theme this season.

Home Side	Away Side	Outcome	League	Date
Nacional	FC Porto	0 – 1 (Loss)	Primeira Liga	Feb 15, 2026
Nacional	Casa Pia AC	0 – 0 (Draw)	Primeira Liga	Feb 8, 2026
Sporting CP	Nacional	2 – 1 (Loss)	Primeira Liga	Feb 1, 2026
Nacional	Rio Ave	4 – 0 (Win)	Primeira Liga	Jan 25, 2026
Gil Vicente	Nacional	2 – 1 (Loss)	Primeira Liga	Jan 17, 2026

Recent Form:
In the last five games, Nacional have averaged 1.20 goals per match, scoring in three of these encounters. Defensively, they have conceded an average of 1.00 goal per game, managing to keep clean sheets on two occasions. Away from home, their performance has been notably weaker, with no wins in their last five away fixtures (D1, L4). This has contributed to their current position of 14th in the league standings with 21 points.

Team Dynamics:

• LDLWL

Jesús Ramírez remains a key figure in Nacional’s attack, contributing significantly to their goal tally with 13 goals this season. Despite his individual brilliance, the team’s collective defensive frailties and inability to secure points on the road have hampered their progress. Their away win ratio stands at 0.00 over the last five away matches, a statistic that underscores their struggles outside Estádio da Madeira.

Nacional: Suspensions & Injuries

Nacional face significant challenges due to the unavailability of key players. Ivanildo Fernandes, Filipe Soares, and Ulisses are listed as doubtful, which could severely impact their defensive solidity and midfield creativity. The absence of these players might force coach Tiago Margarido to rely on less experienced squad members, potentially altering the team’s overall strength and tactical balance.

Player	Suspension	Matches Remaining	Expected Return
Liziero	Yellow cards	1	Unknown

The suspension of Liziero due to an accumulation of yellow cards adds further complications. Liziero’s role in midfield has been pivotal, and his absence means that Nacional will need to find a suitable replacement who can maintain the tempo and control he usually provides. This could lead to a reshuffle in midfield positions, possibly affecting the team’s fluidity and effectiveness in transitioning from defence to attack.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Ivanildo Fernandes	Unknown	Doubtful
Filipe Soares	Unknown	Doubtful
Ulisses	Unknown	Doubtful

With these crucial players unavailable, Nacional might need to adopt a more conservative approach, focusing on defensive resilience to counteract Arouca’s attacking threats. These absences could also influence betting markets, as the team may struggle to perform at their usual level, potentially affecting the match outcome.

Nacional: Key Players

Jesús Ramírez stands out as Nacional’s key player, having scored an impressive 13 goals this season. His ability to find the back of the net consistently makes him a central figure in Nacional’s attacking setup. Ramírez’s striking prowess, complemented by his sharp movement and clinical finishing, poses a significant threat to any defence. Alongside him, Paulinho Bóia offers versatility and creativity in the forward line, often linking up effectively with Ramírez to dismantle opposition defences.

In midfield, Chiheb Labidi is instrumental in dictating the tempo of the game. His vision and passing range allow Nacional to transition smoothly from defence to attack, making him a pivotal player in their tactical setup. Defensively, Chico Gonçalves brings stability and leadership at the back, crucial for Nacional to maintain a solid defensive structure.

Expected lineup for Nacional

• Goalkeeper: Kaique Pereira
• Defence: Alan Núñez, Zé Vítor, Chico Gonçalves, José Gomes
• Midfield: Joel Silva, Matheus Dias, Chiheb Labidi
• Forward: Witi, Jesús Ramírez, Paulinho Bóia

Nacional: Tactics & Formation

Nacional Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: Not specified
• Key Forward: Jesús Ramírez
• Midfield Dynamics: Joel Silva, Matheus Dias, Liziero
• Defensive Challenges: Only two clean sheets in the last five matches
• Notable Strategy: Struggles with possession and shot conversion.

Nacional’s tactical approach has been challenged by recent injuries to key defenders like Ivanildo Fernandes and Chico Gonçalves, impacting their defensive stability. While their formation remains unspecified, they typically rely on a backline that has struggled to maintain clean sheets, conceding five goals in their last five matches.

In midfield, the trio of Joel Silva, Matheus Dias, and Liziero aims to provide both defensive support and creative opportunities. However, with a possession average of 47% in their last game against FC Porto, they face difficulties in controlling the midfield effectively.

Offensively, Jesús Ramírez remains a crucial figure with 13 goals this season, yet the team has only averaged 1.20 goals per game recently. Nacional’s strategy often involves utilising Ramírez’s finishing ability, but their recent form indicates struggles in converting their limited chances into goals.

Arouca vs Nacional: Head-to-Head Record

Arouca and Nacional have faced off 14 times, with Arouca leading the head-to-head record with 7 wins, compared to Nacional’s 2, alongside 5 draws. The last encounter saw Arouca triumph 2-1 away at Nacional in Liga Portugal, marking their second consecutive victory at Nacional’s ground.

The last time Arouca hosted Nacional, they secured a narrow 1-0 win in Liga Portugal. Historically, Arouca have been strong at home against Nacional, which could be a crucial factor for punters considering this fixture.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	League	Date
Nacional	Arouca	1 – 2	Liga Portugal	2025-09-20
Nacional	Arouca	1 – 2	Liga Portugal	2025-02-01
Arouca	Nacional	1 – 0	Liga Portugal	2024-08-25
Arouca	Nacional	0 – 1	Second Division	2018-05-06
Nacional	Arouca	2 – 2	Second Division	2017-12-22