Vitória de Guimarães vs FC Porto Prediction, Match Preview, Sunday, 18 January

Vitória de Guimarães vs FC Porto Prediction, Match Preview: This Sunday, 18 January, all eyes will be on the Estádio D. Afonso Henriques as Vitória de Guimarães hosts FC Porto in a highly anticipated Liga Portugal clash. Both teams are looking to make a significant impact in the league standings, with FC Porto aiming to maintain their strong position at the top of the table, while Vitória de Guimarães seeks to climb higher and challenge for European spots.

The Estádio D. Afonso Henriques will provide the backdrop for this intriguing encounter, where Vitória de Guimarães will be eager to leverage their home advantage against a formidable FC Porto side. Historically, matches between these two teams have been closely contested, adding an extra layer of excitement for fans and bettors alike. As the match unfolds, the tactical battle between the teams will be crucial in determining the outcome of this Liga Portugal fixture.

Vitória de Guimarães vs FC Porto Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
FC Porto to Win	1.46

FC Porto are the clear favourites to win this fixture, given their dominant head-to-head record and recent form. Despite some injury and suspension issues, Porto’s squad depth and tactical advantage make them likely to secure all three points.

• Porto have won 4 of their last 5 matches, showcasing their strong form.
• Vitória de Guimarães have historically struggled against Porto, with only 4 wins compared to Porto’s 33.
• Porto’s ability to adapt despite absences demonstrates their tactical prowess and squad depth.

Porto’s consistent performances, even with squad rotation, underline their quality and resilience.

Betting Odds

As we look at the betting odds for this Liga Portugal clash, FC Porto are clear favourites with odds of 1.46, reflecting their strong form and pedigree. Vitória de Guimarães, playing at home, are seen as underdogs with odds of 6.98, which might tempt those looking for an upset.

Betting Tip	Odds
Vitória de Guimarães to win	6.98
Draw	4.06
FC Porto to win	1.46

The draw is priced at 4.06, suggesting that while Porto are expected to dominate, there’s still a chance for a stalemate. Bettors might also explore the over/under goals market, given Porto’s attacking prowess.

Vitória de Guimarães Analysis & Past Performance

Vitória de Guimarães has shown resilient form recently, securing three wins in their last five matches. Notably, their victories include a 2-1 triumph over Braga and a similar scoreline against Nacional, highlighting their ability to compete strongly in both league and cup fixtures.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Vitória de Guimarães	Braga	2 – 1 (Win)	League Cup	10 Jan 2026
Sporting CP	Vitória de Guimarães	1 – 2 (Win)	League Cup	6 Jan 2026
Vitória de Guimarães	Nacional	2 – 1 (Win)	Primeira Liga	2 Jan 2026
Casa Pia AC	Vitória de Guimarães	0 – 0 (Draw)	Primeira Liga	28 Dec 2025
Vitória de Guimarães	Sporting CP	1 – 4 (Loss)	Primeira Liga	23 Dec 2025

Recent Form:

• WWWDL

Vitória de Guimarães’ attack has been effective, scoring an average of 1.40 goals per match in their last five outings. Their defence has been somewhat vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.40 goals per game, and managing just one clean sheet. The team’s performance is slightly more stable at home, where they have won 2 out of their last 5 matches. Currently standing 7th in the league with 25 points, they will be aiming to improve their defensive solidity while maintaining their attacking flair led by top scorer Nélson Oliveira.

Vitória de Guimarães Suspensions & Injuries

Vitória de Guimarães faces the challenge of dealing with several injuries ahead of their clash against FC Porto. Gustavo Silva’s thigh injury sidelines him until mid-February, which could disrupt the team’s attacking dynamics. José Guilherme Ribeiro’s cruciate ligament injury is a long-term concern, with a return not expected until mid-August. His absence is particularly impactful in the defensive line, potentially forcing a reshuffle in the back four.

Óscar Rivas is also unavailable due to a muscle injury, although he might return in a few days. His absence could be a temporary setback, but it still poses a problem for the squad’s depth, especially if recovery is delayed. This situation requires tactical adjustments by coach Luís Pinto, who may have to rely on less experienced players to fill these gaps.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Gustavo Silva	Thigh injury	Mid February 2026
José Guilherme Ribeiro	Cruciate ligament injury	Mid August 2026
Óscar Rivas	Muscle injury	Few days

The absence of these players might prompt tactical changes, potentially affecting Vitória de Guimarães’s ability to maintain their usual formation and style of play. The lack of depth could also influence their performance against a formidable FC Porto side, impacting betting markets as the home side may be seen as underdogs due to these constraints.

Vitória de Guimarães Key Players

Nélson Oliveira stands out as Vitória de Guimarães’ top scorer with 3 goals. His sharp instincts in front of goal and ability to find space make him a pivotal figure in the attacking third. Oliveira’s experience and finishing prowess are expected to be critical as the team seeks to break down FC Porto’s defence. Alongside him, Noah Saviolo offers pace and creativity, often linking up effectively with Oliveira to create scoring opportunities.

In midfield, Beni Mukendi’s role as a playmaker is vital. His vision and passing range could dictate the tempo of the game, providing the necessary support to the forwards. Defensively, Rodrigo Abascal is a key player at the back. His strength and ability to read the game are essential in neutralising opposition threats. The tactical impact of these players is significant, as they contribute to both Vitória’s offensive and defensive strategies.

Expected lineup for Vitória de Guimarães:

• Goalkeeper: Juan Castillo
• Defenders: Miguel Maga, Miguel Nóbrega, Rodrigo Abascal, João Mendes
• Midfielders: Gonçalo Nogueira, Beni Mukendi, Samu
• Forwards: Telmo Arcanjo, Noah Saviolo, Nélson Oliveira

Vitória de Guimarães Tactics and Formation

Vitória de Guimarães Tactical Breakdown:

• Recent Formation: 4-5-1
• Key Forward: Nélson Oliveira
• Midfield Engine: Telmo Arcanjo
• Defensive Record: One clean sheet in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Compact midfield and reliance on counterattacks.

Luís Pinto’s Vitória de Guimarães often employs a 4-5-1 formation that focuses on maintaining a compact midfield, creating a defensive wall that is difficult for opponents to penetrate. Nélson Oliveira, with three goals to his name, leads the line, supported by a midfield that includes the industrious Telmo Arcanjo and creative influences like Gonçalo Nogueira.

Defensively, the team relies on the back four of Tony Strata, Miguel Nóbrega, Rodrigo Abascal, and João Mendes to provide stability. However, they have managed just one clean sheet in their last five matches, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in defence that need addressing.

Offensively, Vitória de Guimarães capitalises on quick transitions, using the pace and vision of players like Beni and Noah Saviolo. Their strategy often includes absorbing pressure and springing counterattacks, a tactic that has seen them score crucial goals, particularly in their recent 2-1 victory over Braga.

FC Porto Analysis & Past Performance

FC Porto is currently enjoying exceptional form, maintaining a flawless record in their last five encounters, all resulting in victories. They have demonstrated their attacking prowess with a total of 11 goals scored, averaging 2.20 goals per match. Their recent triumphs include a solid 1-0 victory against Benfica and a dominant 4-1 win over Famalicão in the Taça de Portugal.

Home Team	Away Team	Outcome	Competition	Date
FC Porto	Benfica	1 – 0 (Win)	Portuguese Cup	Jan 14, 2026
Santa Clara	FC Porto	0 – 1 (Win)	Portuguese League	Jan 4, 2026
FC Porto	AVS Futebol SAD	2 – 0 (Win)	Portuguese League	Dec 29, 2025
Alverca	FC Porto	0 – 3 (Win)	Portuguese League	Dec 22, 2025
FC Porto	Famalicão	4 – 1 (Win)	Portuguese Cup	Dec 18, 2025

Recent Form:

• WWWWW

Defensively, FC Porto has been remarkable, recording four clean sheets in their last five outings, translating to an impressive clean sheets ratio of 0.80. Their defence has only been breached once, showcasing their robust defensive setup. This defensive solidity is complemented by a relentless attack, spearheaded by top scorer Samu Omorodion Aghehowa, who has netted 11 goals this season. Additionally, their away form remains unblemished with a 100% win ratio, highlighting their ability to perform under pressure on foreign soil.

FC Porto Suspensions & Injuries

FC Porto faces some challenges ahead of their match against Vitória de Guimarães due to key players being unavailable. The suspension of Pablo Rosario for accumulated yellow cards leaves a gap in midfield, potentially disrupting the team’s balance. His absence will necessitate a tactical adjustment from coach Francesco Farioli, who may rely on Victor Froholdt to step into a more central role, or perhaps shift Gabriel Veiga into a more defensive position.

Player	Suspension	Matches Remaining	Expected Return
Pablo Rosario	Yellow cards	1	Unknown

Injuries also plague FC Porto, with Nehuén Pérez and Luuk de Jong both doubtful due to tendon and knock injuries, respectively. Francisco Moura is sidelined with a muscle injury until late January. These absences could prove significant, especially in defence and attack. Nehuén Pérez’s defensive capabilities will be missed, potentially forcing a reshuffle in the backline, while Luuk de Jong’s presence up front will be hard to replace, requiring Samu Omorodion Aghehowa or Borja Sainz to step up.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Nehuén Pérez	Tendon injury	Doubtful
Luuk de Jong	Knock injury	Doubtful
Francisco Moura	Muscle injury	Late January 2026

The unavailability of these players might influence the betting odds, as FC Porto’s usual depth and attacking prowess are compromised. Tactical flexibility and squad rotation will be critical as they aim to maintain their form and secure a positive result despite these setbacks.

FC Porto Key Players

FC Porto’s top scorer Samu Omorodion Aghehowa, with 11 goals to his name, is a pivotal figure in their attacking lineup. His ability to find the back of the net with precision and his proficiency in exploiting defensive gaps make him a constant threat to opponents. His partnership with fellow forwards Pepe and William Gomes is expected to be the focal point of Porto’s offensive strategy.

In midfield, Gabriel Veiga and Alan Varela are crucial to FC Porto’s playmaking abilities. Veiga’s vision and passing range, combined with Varela’s defensive tenacity, provide a balanced midfield setup capable of controlling the game’s tempo. Defensively, the presence of Jan Bednarek and Jakub Kiwior offers solidity and aerial prowess, crucial for thwarting opposing attacks.

Expected lineup for FC Porto:

• Goalkeeper: Diogo Costa
• Defenders: Martim Fernandes, Jan Bednarek, Jakub Kiwior, Dominik Prpić
• Midfielders: Gabriel Veiga, Alan Varela, Victor Froholdt
• Forwards: Pepe, Samu Omorodion Aghehowa, William Gomes

The tactical impact of these key players can shape Porto’s approach, with a blend of attacking flair and defensive resilience. Aghehowa’s goal-scoring prowess, combined with the midfield’s creativity and the defence’s robustness, forms a comprehensive strategy that could prove decisive in their match against Vitória de Guimarães.

FC Porto Tactics and Formation

FC Porto Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: Expected 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Samu Omorodion Aghehowa
• Midfield Pivot: Victor Froholdt and Pablo Rosario
• Defensive Strength: Four clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Strong pressing and quick transitions.

FC Porto’s recent success can be attributed to their 4-3-3 formation, which allows them to exploit width and maintain a high pressing game. Samu Omorodion Aghehowa, their top scorer, spearheads the attack, supported by wingers Pepe and Borja Sainz. This trio provides both pace and creativity, crucial for breaking down opposition defences.

In midfield, Victor Froholdt and Pablo Rosario play pivotal roles, balancing defensive duties with ball distribution. Their ability to win back possession and initiate attacks has been integral to Porto’s strategy, especially in games where they faced high-pressing opponents like Benfica.

Defensively, the backline led by Jan Bednarek and Thiago Silva has been formidable, keeping four clean sheets in their last five matches. This defensive solidity provides a strong foundation for Porto’s offensive strategies, allowing them to focus on pressing high and utilising quick transitions effectively.

Vitória de Guimarães vs FC Porto Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Vitória de Guimarães and FC Porto is heavily tilted in Porto’s favour, with Porto winning 41 out of 50 encounters, while Guimarães have only managed 4 wins, and 5 matches ended in draws. In their most recent meeting, Guimarães pulled off a surprising 3-1 victory in the League Cup, showing they can spring a surprise.

In Liga Portugal, Porto’s dominance is even more pronounced. The last time these two met in the league was in August 2025, where Porto comfortably won 3-0 at home. When Guimarães hosted Porto in September 2024, they suffered a 3-0 defeat, highlighting Porto’s strong away form.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
FC Porto	Vitória de Guimarães	1 – 3	League Cup	2025-12-04
FC Porto	Vitória de Guimarães	3 – 0	Primeira Liga	2025-08-11
FC Porto	Vitória de Guimarães	1 – 1	Primeira Liga	2025-02-24
Vitória de Guimarães	FC Porto	0 – 3	Primeira Liga	2024-09-21
FC Porto	Vitória de Guimarães	3 – 1	Portuguese Cup	2024-04-17