Atalanta vs. Lecce Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips - bettingexpert
Get ready for an intriguing clash as Atalanta hosts Lecce at the Gewiss Stadium on 25 April 2025 at 19:45 in the 34th round of Serie A. This is a vital match for both teams, with Atalanta aiming to cement their position in the Champions League spots, sitting 3rd in the standings with 64 points. Lecce, on the other hand, is fighting to escape relegation, currently in 17th place with 26 points.
Coming off a confidence-boosting away win against AC Milan, Atalanta are the bookmaker favorites, expected to cover the -2 handicap. Despite their defensive issues and vital players being injured, they still have enough firepower, led by top scorer Mateo Retegui. Lecce will be without their top scorer Nikola Krstovic due to suspension and enter the match mired in poor form, having failed to win in their last 10 matches.
Given the stark contrast in form and standings, we predict a comfortable win for Atalanta.
Recommended bet: Atalanta to cover the -2 handicap.
Atalanta vs Lecce Prediction & Betting Tip
Recommendation: Our betting tip is for Atalanta to cover the -2 handicap. Based on Atalanta’s recent form and Lecce’s struggles, this is a solid choice.
| Atalanta vs Lecce Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| Atalanta to cover the -2 handicap | 1.25 |
- Atalanta are in good form, having won their last two games, including an impressive away win against AC Milan.
- Lecce haven’t won in their last 10 matches, struggling both offensively and defensively.
- Atalanta’s Mateo Retegui, Serie A’s second-highest scorer, poses a significant threat to Lecce’s leaky defense.
Atalanta vs Lecce Odds
| Atalanta vs Lecce Betting Odds | |
|---|---|
| Bet | Odds |
| Atalanta | 1.25 |
| Draw | 6.02 |
| Lecce | 11.05 |
Given the current form and standings, Atalanta is heavily favored to win this match with odds of 1.25. A draw is considered less likely, with odds set at 6.02, while a Lecce victory is seen as quite improbable at 11.05.
These odds reflect Atalanta’s strong position in the league and their recent performances, whereas Lecce’s struggles are well-documented, especially their inability to win in ten consecutive matches. Expect Atalanta to assert their dominance here.
Atalanta Team Analysis
Atalanta Recent Performance
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | Atalanta | 2025-04-20 | Serie A | 1-0 (Win) |
| Atalanta | Bologna | 2025-04-13 | Serie A | 2-0 (Win) |
| Atalanta | Lazio | 2025-04-06 | Serie A | 0-1 (Loss) |
| Fiorentina | Atalanta | 2025-03-30 | Serie A | 0-1 (Loss) |
| Atalanta | Inter | 2025-03-16 | Serie A | 0-2 (Loss) |
Recent Form: LLWWL
Atalanta enters this match on an upswing after a crucial 1-0 away win against AC Milan, thanks to a single goal from Ederson. In their last five matches, they’ve managed two victories, including a solid 2-0 win over Bologna.
Despite only scoring six goals across these games, their defense has been reliable, with two clean sheets.
Injuries to key defenders like Djimsiti and Kolasinac mean adjustments are necessary, but their aggressive playstyle remains intact. Overall, Atalanta’s momentum and solid defense make them favorites against an underperforming Lecce side.
Atalanta Key Players
Atalanta’s key players will be vital in maintaining their strong form and pushing for a Champions League spot. The star of the show is Mateo Retegui, their top scorer with 23 goals, who is essential in breaking through Lecce’s defense. Ademola Lookman, a major target for Liverpool, has been critical this season with 18 goals and seven assists in 36 matches—his pace and creativity will be crucial. Ederson, riding high after scoring the winner against Milan, brings energy to the midfield, paired with the reliable Marten de Roon.
Expected lineup for Atalanta:
- Goalkeeper: Marco Carnesecchi
- Defenders: Raoul Bellanova, Isak Hien, Matteo Ruggeri
- Midfielders: Juan Cuadrado, Marten de Roon, Ederson José, Davide Zappacosta
- Attackers: Mario Pasalic, Ademola Lookman, Mateo Retegui
Atalanta Suspensions & Injuries
Atalanta is dealing with several injuries that could impact their lineup for this match:
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Erdis Kraja | Cruciate ligament injury | A few days |
| Giorgio Scalvini | Shoulder injury | Early May 2025 |
| Gianluca Scamacca | Hamstring injury | Early May 2025 |
| Stefan Posch | Hamstring injury | Doubtful |
| Marco Palestra | Thigh injury | Early May 2025 |
| Sead Kolasinac | Cruciate ligament injury | Late August 2025 |
With these key players sidelined, Atalanta’s depth will be tested, particularly in defense. Djimsiti and Kolasinac being out means Kossounou and Rafael Tolói might step in, which could potentially affect their defensive solidity. Additionally, missing important attackers like Scamacca might limit their offensive power.
Atalanta Tactics and Formation
Atalanta Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-2-1
- Key Forward: Mateo Retegui
- Midfield Duo: Marten de Roon, Ederson José
- Wing Play: Juan Cuadrado, Davide Zappacosta
In their current setup under coach Tullio Gritti, Atalanta relies heavily on a three-at-the-back formation, providing both defensive resilience and offensive support. The wing-backs, Cuadrado and Zappacosta, play crucial roles in stretching the play and providing crosses into the box.
With two clean sheets in their last five games, Atalanta’s defensive strength is commendable, even though they’re missing key defenders. Their attack hinges on Mateo Retegui, who is a consistent goal-scoring threat. Lookman and Pasalic support him from advanced midfield positions, ensuring creativity and penetration in the final third.
Lecce Team Analysis
Lecce Recent Performance
Let’s dive into Lecce’s latest form and their recent performances in Serie A:
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | Como | 2025-04-19 | Serie A | 0-3 (Loss) |
| Juventus | Lecce | 2025-04-12 | Serie A | 2-1 (Loss) |
| Lecce | Venezia | 2025-04-06 | Serie A | 1-1 (Draw) |
| Lecce | Roma | 2025-03-29 | Serie A | 0-1 (Loss) |
| Genoa | Lecce | 2025-03-14 | Serie A | 2-1 (Loss) |
Lecce have had a challenging run in their last five matches, managing only a single point from a draw against Venezia. They have been struggling to keep clean sheets, with none in their latest fixtures, and are conceding 1.6 goals on average this season. Despite experiencing a tough period, they have managed to score an average of 0.60 goals per game in their last five matches. Their difficulties on the defensive end and their inability to secure wins are evident, making their clash against Atalanta a daunting task.
Lecce Key Players
Expected lineup for Lecce:
- Goalkeeper: Wladimiro Falcone
- Defenders: Frédéric Guilbert, Kialonda Gaspar, Federico Baschirotto, Antonino Gallo
- Midfielders: Lassana Coulibaly, Ylber Ramadani, Santiago Pierotti, Thórir Jóhann Helgason, Tete Morente
- Center forward: Ante Rebic
Nikola Krstovic, Lecce’s top scorer with 10 goals this season, will be missed due to suspension. Ante Rebic is expected to shoulder much of the goalscoring burden.
Key battles to watch include Santiago Pierotti against Juan Cuadrado and Thórir Jóhann Helgason navigating through Atalanta’s solid midfield. Lecce will need their defensive line, spearheaded by Federico Baschirotto, to be at their best to stand any chance against Atalanta’s prolific Mateo Retegui.
Lecce Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Suspension | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Medon Berisha | Yellow cards | 1 match |
| Nikola Krstovic | Yellow cards | 1 match |
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Marchwinski | Cruciate ligament | Out for season |
| Gaby Jean | Cruciate ligament | Early September 2025 |
Lecce will be missing several key players due to suspensions and injuries, which could severely impact their performance against Atalanta. Nikola Krstovic, Lecce’s top scorer, is suspended, leaving a significant gap in their attacking options. Additionally, midfielder Filip Marchwinski and defender Gaby Jean are out with long-term injuries, further complicating their challenge. The absence of these players places added pressure on the rest of the squad to step up and deliver.
Lecce Tactics and Formation
Lecce’s Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 4-2-3-1
- Key Forward: Ante Rebić, stepping in for the suspended Nikola Krstović
- Midfield Support: Lassana Coulibaly and Ylber Ramadani anchoring the midfield
- Attacking Midfield Trio: Santiago Pierotti, Thórir Jóhann Helgason, and Tete Morente
- Defensive Unit: Frédéric Guilbert, Kialonda Gaspar, Federico Baschirotto, and Antonino Gallo
Despite their struggles, Lecce’s tactic hinges on maintaining a solid defensive line and utilizing quick transitions to catch Atalanta off guard. Ante Rebić will play a crucial role up front, supported by an industrious midfield aiming to disrupt Atalanta’s rhythm and capitalize on any opportunities created through their pressing high up the pitch.
Atalanta vs Lecce Head-to-Head Statistics
In their last five meetings, Atalanta has generally had the upper hand against Lecce, winning four out of five encounters. Here’s a quick look at their recent match history:
| Home Team | Away Team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | Atalanta | 2024-08-19 | Serie A | 0-4 (Loss) |
| Lecce | Atalanta | 2024-05-18 | Serie A | 0-2 (Loss) |
| Atalanta | Lecce | 2023-12-30 | Serie A | 1-0 (Win) |
| Atalanta | Lecce | 2023-02-19 | Serie A | 1-2 (Loss) |
| Lecce | Atalanta | 2022-11-09 | Serie A | 2-1 (Loss) |
Atalanta has clearly dominated recent fixtures against Lecce, a trend they will look to maintain in their upcoming match.
Odds accurate as of 23/04/2025 19:46, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any {bookmaker}.
