Monza vs. Atalanta Prediction, Match Preview, and Betting Tips, 4 May 2025 - bettingexpert
The upcoming Serie A clash at the U-Power Stadium features bottom-placed Monza taking on third-placed Atalanta on 4 May 2025 at 14:00. With Monza teetering at the bottom of the table with just 15 points and Atalanta vying to secure a top-four finish with 65 points, this match carries substantial significance for both sides, albeit for contrasting reasons.
Monza, under coach Alessandro Nesta, has been struggling with form, having lost their last five matches, including a recent 2-0 defeat to Juventus. Injuries to key players such as Matteo Pessina and Keita Balde further complicate their situation. Monza’s latest lineup indicates a team fighting to stay afloat but hampered by inconsistencies and a lack of scoring prowess.
Conversely, Atalanta, led by Gian Piero Gasperini, will head into this match as heavy favorites. Boasting a solid defense and a potent attack spearheaded by the prolific Mateo Retegui, who recently equaled Filippo Inzaghi’s goal record, Atalanta poses a formidable challenge. Their recent form includes victories over AC Milan and Bologna.
With Atalanta’s superior statistics—scoring in 82% of matches and conceding just 0.9 goals per game—a bet on Atalanta -1.50 (AH) seems advisable. The referee for the match will be Luca Pairetto, which adds to the fair competition’s credibility.
Expect Atalanta to dominate, given their form, past performances, and Monza’s struggles. The forecasted outcome heavily leans towards Atalanta securing a comfortable win.
Monza vs Atalanta Prediction & Betting Tip
Recommending the betting tip for this clash: Atalanta -1.50 (AH). Given Atalanta’s superior form and Monza’s struggles, this tip is robust. Here’s why:
| Monza vs Atalanta Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| Atalanta -1.50 (AH) | 1.22 |
Reasons for this prediction:
- Atalanta’s Dominance: Atalanta have scored first in 80% of their matches against Monza in the past five seasons.
- Monza’s Poor Form: Monza has struggled recently, losing their last five matches and only scoring 0.20 goals on average.
- Atalanta’s Consistent Attack: With 82% of matches seeing Atalanta score and Mateo Retegui leading the attack, they are more likely to secure a substantial victory.
Monza vs Atalanta Odds
The odds for this Serie A clash heavily favor Atalanta, reflecting their superior form and Monza’s struggles throughout the season.
| Monza vs Atalanta Betting Odds | |
|---|---|
| Bet | Odds |
| Monza | 12.02 |
| Draw | 6.36 |
| Atalanta | 1.22 |
These odds indicate that Atalanta, with a commendable third place in the league, are the bookmakers’ favorites. Monza, languishing at the bottom, face an uphill battle. Given Atalanta’s recent performances and Monza’s lackluster form, backing Atalanta to win seems a wise choice.
Monza Team Analysis
Monza Recent Performance
Monza has been struggling heavily this season, as reflected in their recent form, which reads LLLLL. They are currently bottom of the Serie A table with just 15 points. The team has not registered a win in their last five matches, indicating a dire situation in their battle against relegation.
| Home Team | Away Team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | Monza | 2025-04-27 | Serie A | 2-0 (Loss) |
| Monza | SSC Napoli | 2025-04-19 | Serie A | 0-1 (Loss) |
| Venezia | Monza | 2025-04-12 | Serie A | 1-0 (Loss) |
| Monza | Como | 2025-04-05 | Serie A | 1-3 (Loss) |
| Cagliari | Monza | 2025-03-30 | Serie A | 3-0 (Loss) |
Monza’s attack has been lacklustre, with the team averaging just 0.20 goals scored per game over their last five matches. They’ve also failed to keep a single clean sheet in this period. This combination of a weak offense and a porous defense does not bode well for their clash against a formidable Atalanta side.
Monza Key Players
Monza has had a tough season, but some individuals still stand out. Dany Mota, with 5 goals, is the team’s top scorer and will be crucial in breaking down Atalanta’s defence. Gianluca Caprari, partnering with Mota upfront, will also need to step up his game. Midfield dynamo Alessandro Bianco, despite being elbowed recently in a match against Juventus, remains pivotal for Monza’s transitional play and stability in midfield. The defence, led by Luca Caldirola, will bear the heavy responsibility of containing Atalanta’s potent attack, particularly in the absence of Andrea Carboni due to suspension.
Expected lineup for Monza:
- Goalkeeper: Stefano Turati
- Defenders: Pedro Pereira, Luca Caldirola, Tomas Palacios
- Midfielders: Samuele Birindelli, Gaetano Castrovilli, Alessandro Bianco, Jean Daniel Akpa Akpro, Georgios Kyriakopoulos
- Forwards: Dany Mota, Gianluca Caprari
Monza Suspensions & Injuries
Monza faces a spate of suspensions and injuries that could affect their performance against Atalanta. Andrea Carboni’s suspension adds to their defensive woes, especially against a high-scoring team like Atalanta. The absence of key defenders and midfielders will undoubtedly put Monza on the back foot.
Suspensions
| Player | Suspension | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Andrea Carboni | Yellow cards | 08/05/2025 |
Injuries
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Matteo Pessina | Thigh injury | Early June 2025 |
| Keita Balde | Hip injury | Mid May 2025 |
| Armando Izzo | Groin injury | Mid May 2025 |
| Danilo D’Ambrosio | Ankle injury | Mid May 2025 |
| Silvere Ganvoula | Physical discomfort | Mid May 2025 |
| Roberto Gagliardini | Physical discomfort | Mid May 2025 |
| Kevin Zeroli | Physical discomfort | About a week |
With these critical absences, Monza will need to dig deep into their squad depth to field a competitive lineup.
Monza Tactics and Formation
Monza Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-5-2
- Key Forwards: Gianluca Caprari and Dany Mota
- Midfield Set-Up:
- Right Midfielder: Samuele Birindelli
- Central Midfielders: Gaetano Castrovilli, Alessandro Bianco, Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro
- Left Midfielder: Giorgos Kyriakopoulos
- Defensive Line-Up:
- Goalkeeper: Stefano Turati
- Right Centre-Back: Pedro Pereira
- Central Back: Luca Caldirola
- Left Centre-Back: Tomas Palacios
Monza will rely heavily on the duo of Caprari and Mota up front, attempting to counter-attack against Atalanta’s high press. The midfield will be crucial for transitioning from defense to attack, especially given their recent struggles. The defense, without Carboni, is bolstered by Turati’s goalkeeping but has shown vulnerabilities, having conceded frequently.
Atalanta Team Analysis
Atalanta Recent Performance
Let’s take a closer look at Atalanta’s recent performance:
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | Lecce | 2025-04-27 | Serie A | 1-1 (Draw) |
| AC Milan | Atalanta | 2025-04-20 | Serie A | 0-1 (Win) |
| Atalanta | Bologna | 2025-04-13 | Serie A | 2-0 (Win) |
| Atalanta | Lazio | 2025-04-06 | Serie A | 0-1 (Loss) |
| Fiorentina | Atalanta | 2025-03-30 | Serie A | 1-0 (Loss) |
Recent Form: DWWLL
Atalanta’s recent form has been a mix of ups and downs. In their last 5 matches, they’ve won twice, drawn once, and lost twice. Their attacking prowess has been evident, as they’ve scored in 82% of their matches this season.
Notably, Atalanta has managed to keep 2 clean sheets in their last 5 games, showcasing a relatively tight defense. With an average of 0.80 goals scored per game in their recent fixtures, they clearly pose an offensive threat.
The upcoming match against Monza is crucial as Atalanta aims to consolidate their position in the upper echelons of the Serie A table.
Atalanta Key Players
Atalanta’s squad is brimming with talent, and some key players could make all the difference in this match against Monza.
Mateo Retegui, the top scorer with 24 goals this season, will be leading the attack. His clinical finishing could spell trouble for Monza’s defense.
In the midfield, Mario Pasalic and Ademola Lookman will be crucial, both in creating chances and breaking Monza’s lines. Lookman, with his flair and pace, could be a handful.
Odilon Kossounou, Isak Hien, and Berat Djimsiti form a stable backline known for their physicality and tactical awareness.
Expected lineup for Atalanta:
- Goalkeeper: Marco Carnesecchi
- Defenders: Odilon Kossounou, Isak Hien, Berat Djimsiti
- Midfielders: Raoul Bellanova, Ederson José, Marten De Roon, Davide Zappacosta
- Attackers: Mario Pasalic, Ademola Lookman, Mateo Retegui
Watch out for the duel between Retegui and Monza’s center-back Luca Caldirola—it could be a game-changer!
Atalanta Suspensions & Injuries
Atalanta face several injury concerns heading into this clash against Monza. The following players are sidelined:
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Erdis Kraja | Cruciate ligament injury | Few days |
| Giorgio Scalvini | Shoulder injury | Early June 2025 |
| Gianluca Scamacca | Hamstring injury | Early June 2025 |
| Stefan Posch | Hamstring injury | Doubtful |
| Marco Palestra | Thigh injury | Mid May 2025 |
| Sead Kolasinac | Cruciate ligament injury | Late August 2025 |
Although Atalanta’s bench has depth, these injuries could slightly affect their dynamics, especially with key players like Giorgio Scalvini and Gianluca Scamacca out. Coach Gian Piero Gasperini will need to rely on his squad’s versatility, but their overall strength should still pose a significant threat to Monza.
Fitness and form of the playing squad will be crucial in maintaining their push for a top-three finish. Mateo Retegui will need support up front to unlock Monza’s defense.
Atalanta Tactics and Formation
Atalanta’s Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-2-1
- Key Forward: Mateo Retegui
- Midfield Dynamics: Raoul Bellanova, Ederson José, Marten de Roon, Davide Zappacosta
- Defensive Cohesion: Two clean sheets in the last five games
- Strategic Focus: High-pressure attacks, especially potent in the 31-45 minute interval
Atalanta will likely adopt a 3-4-2-1 formation to maximize their midfield strength and attacking prowess. With Retegui leading the charge up front, supported by Pasalic and Lookman, they can exploit Monza’s defensive frailties. The cohesion between Ederson and de Roon in central midfield provides a solid core, allowing Zappacosta and Bellanova to surge down the flanks. Gasperini’s side thrives on high pressing and will aim to dominate possession and create multiple scoring opportunities early in the game.
Monza vs Atalanta Head-to-Head Statistics
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | Monza | 2024-10-30 | Serie A | 2-0 (Win) |
| Monza | Atalanta | 2024-04-21 | Serie A | 1-2 (Loss) |
| Atalanta | Monza | 2023-09-02 | Serie A | 3-0 (Win) |
| Atalanta | Monza | 2023-06-04 | Serie A | 5-2 (Win) |
| Monza | Atalanta | 2022-09-05 | Serie A | 0-2 (Loss) |
Atalanta has dominated this fixture in recent years, winning all five of their last encounters against Monza. Monza will look to overturn this trend but face a tough challenge against an in-form Atalanta side.
Odds accurate as of 02/05/2025 14:02, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.
