Atalanta vs Parma Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, Sunday, 25 January

This Sunday, 25 January, Atalanta face Parma in a compelling Serie A clash at the New Balance Arena. Both teams are eager to secure crucial points in the league standings, making this match a significant encounter. Atalanta, renowned for their attacking prowess, will look to capitalise on their home advantage against Parma, who are determined to improve their league position.

The New Balance Arena sets the stage for this Serie A showdown, where Atalanta’s offensive capabilities will be tested against Parma’s defensive resilience. With both teams having much at stake, this fixture could have important implications for their respective campaigns. Fans and bettors alike will be keen to see how these sides perform, making it a must-watch event on the Serie A calendar.

Atalanta vs Parma Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Under 2.5 goals	2.16

Considering the defensive strengths and recent form of both teams, our recommended betting tip is to back under 2.5 goals in this match. The odds are favourable, and both sides have shown a tendency to feature in low-scoring games.

• Atalanta have gone under 2.5 goals in five consecutive matches, reflecting their strong defensive setup.
• Parma have one of the lowest goal-scoring averages in the league, at just 1.7 goals per game.
• The first leg between these two teams ended in a 1-1 draw, further indicating a likely low-scoring affair.

Betting Odds

Atalanta are clear favourites in this Serie A clash, with betting odds reflecting their strong home form at the New Balance Arena. Parma, meanwhile, are considered outsiders at odds of 7.62, making them an intriguing option for those seeking a potential upset.

Betting Tip	Odds
Atalanta to win	1.4
Draw	4.62
Parma to win	7.62

The draw is priced at 4.62, which might tempt punters considering Atalanta’s occasional slip-ups against lower-ranked teams. For those looking at goal markets, Atalanta’s attacking strength suggests that over 2.5 goals could be worth considering.

Atalanta Analysis & Past Performance

Atalanta’s recent form has been strong, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, including a recent 2-3 defeat to Athletic Club in the Champions League. Their consistent scoring is evident, netting eight goals across these fixtures at an average of 1.60 goals per game.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Atalanta	Athletic Club	2 – 3 (Loss)	Champions League	21 Jan 2026
Pisa	Atalanta	1 – 1 (Draw)	Serie A	16 Jan 2026
Atalanta	Torino	2 – 0 (Win)	Serie A	10 Jan 2026
Bologna	Atalanta	0 – 2 (Win)	Serie A	7 Jan 2026
Atalanta	Roma	1 – 0 (Win)	Serie A	3 Jan 2026

Recent Form:

• LDWWW

Defensively, Atalanta have shown resilience, securing three clean sheets in their last five games, highlighting their defensive solidity with an average of just 0.80 goals conceded per match. At home, they have been particularly impressive, winning three out of five matches, translating to a 60% home win ratio. Despite their recent stumble in European competition, domestically they sit 7th in Serie A with 32 points, indicating a strong league campaign so far. Their tactical approach relies heavily on maintaining possession, as seen in their 62% possession against Athletic Club, and utilising set-pieces to their advantage, as shown by five corners in the same match.

Atalanta Suspensions & Injuries

Atalanta face a few challenges due to injuries as they prepare for their match against Parma. The absence of Raoul Bellanova with a hamstring injury, expected to return in early February 2026, may impact the team’s defensive flexibility. His attacking threat from the wing-back position will be missed, potentially limiting Atalanta’s options in wide areas. Mitchel Bakker, recovering from a cruciate ligament injury and now back in training, may not yet be match-fit, which could see Lorenzo Bernasconi or Yunus Musah taking up wider roles if needed.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Erdis Kraja	Cruciate ligament injury	A few days
Mitchel Bakker	Cruciate ligament injury	Back in training
Raoul Bellanova	Hamstring injury	Early February 2026

Erdis Kraja is also out with a cruciate ligament injury but is expected to return in a few days, although his impact on the first team has been minimal. Manager Raffaele Palladino may opt for a more conservative approach, maintaining a solid back three with Isak Hien, Giorgio Scalvini, and Honest Ahanor. This setup ensures defensive stability while allowing wing-backs to push forward when necessary.

With these injuries, Atalanta’s depth will be tested, especially in defensive transitions. However, the team’s core remains intact, offering a balanced approach against Parma. Bettors may wish to consider these injuries when assessing Atalanta’s defensive solidity, as Bellanova’s absence could influence their ability to counterattack effectively down the flanks.

Atalanta Key Players

Atalanta’s attack will be led by Gianluca Scamacca, who has been a consistent threat with five goals this season. His clinical finishing and ability to find space in the box make him a constant danger to any defence. The team’s offensive strategy will likely revolve around Scamacca, with support from Charles De Ketelaere, whose creativity and versatility can unsettle Parma’s backline.

In midfield, the combination of Marten de Roon and Mario Pašalić will be pivotal. De Roon’s defensive awareness and ability to break up opposition play provide a solid foundation, while Pašalić offers creativity and goal-scoring potential from deep. Nicola Zalewski’s versatility in midfield and attack adds another layer to Atalanta’s tactical setup, offering both playmaking and goal-scoring options.

Expected lineup for Atalanta:

• Goalkeeper: Marco Carnesecchi
• Defence: Isak Hien, Giorgio Scalvini, Honest Ahanor
• Midfield: Yunus Musah, Marten de Roon, Mario Pašalić, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Charles De Ketelaere, Nicola Zalewski
• Forward: Gianluca Scamacca

Atalanta Tactics and Formation

Atalanta Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-2-1
• Key Forward: Gianluca Scamacca
• Midfield Pivot: Marten de Roon and Mario Pašalić
• Defensive Strength: Three clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: High possession play and dynamic midfield transitions.

Atalanta’s 3-4-2-1 formation under Raffaele Palladino focuses on high possession and dynamic transitions. With Marten de Roon and Mario Pašalić in the midfield pivot, they effectively control the game’s tempo, offering both defensive cover and offensive support. The presence of Yunus Musah and Lorenzo Bernasconi as wing-backs adds width and flexibility to their play.

Defensively, the back three of Isak Hien, Giorgio Scalvini, and Honest Ahanor provide a solid foundation, contributing to Atalanta’s recent clean sheets. Marco Carnesecchi, as goalkeeper, ensures reliability between the posts, which is crucial for maintaining defensive stability.

Offensively, Gianluca Scamacca leads the line, supported by creative midfielders Charles De Ketelaere and Nicola Zalewski. Despite recent injuries to Mitchel Bakker and Raoul Bellanova, Atalanta’s tactical adaptability has allowed them to maintain competitive form, emphasising their resilience and squad depth.

Parma Analysis & Past Performance

Parma currently sit 13th in Serie A with a total of 23 points. Their recent form has been mixed, recording one win, one loss, and three draws in their last five matches. Recent results include a notable 2-1 victory against Lecce and a resilient 0-0 draw against Napoli, showcasing their defensive capabilities with two clean sheets during this period.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Parma	Genoa	0 – 0 (Draw)	Serie A	18 Jan 2026
Napoli	Parma	0 – 0 (Draw)	Serie A	14 Jan 2026
Lecce	Parma	1 – 2 (Win)	Serie A	11 Jan 2026
Parma	Inter	0 – 2 (Loss)	Serie A	7 Jan 2026
Sassuolo	Parma	1 – 1 (Draw)	Serie A	3 Jan 2026

Recent Form:

• DDWLD

Parma’s attack has been relatively subdued, averaging just 0.60 goals per game in their last five matches. They have struggled to score consistently, netting in only two of these fixtures. Defensively, they have shown some resilience, conceding an average of 0.80 goals per game and maintaining a clean sheet in 40% of their recent outings. Their away form has been stronger, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five away matches, highlighting a commendable 0.40 win ratio on the road.

Parma Suspensions & Injuries

Parma face a challenging situation with several key players unavailable due to injury. Matija Frigan’s absence, owing to a cruciate ligament injury, is a significant blow to their attacking options, as his return is not expected until early March 2026. This will likely necessitate tactical adjustments, potentially placing more responsibility on Jacob Ondrejka and Mateo Pellegrino to lead the forward line.

In midfield, the absence of Abdoulaye N’Diaye due to a muscle injury, with his return still doubtful, could impact the team’s depth. Adrian Bernabé and Nahuel Estévez will need to step up to ensure stability and creativity in the middle of the park. Meanwhile, Vicente Guaita’s shoulder injury and Zion Suzuki’s broken hand leave Parma short on goalkeeping options, putting the onus on Edoardo Corvi to perform consistently.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Matija Frigan	Cruciate ligament injury	Early March 2026
Zion Suzuki	Broken hand	Early February 2026
Abdoulaye N’Diaye	Muscle injury	Doubtful
Pontus Almqvist	Muscle injury	Early February 2026
Vicente Guaita	Shoulder injury	Mid February 2026

Pontus Almqvist’s muscle injury, with a return expected in early February 2026, further limits Parma’s flexibility in squad rotation. These injuries collectively reduce the team’s depth, potentially influencing their tactical setup and match strategy. As a result, Parma may adopt a more conservative approach against Atalanta to mitigate these absences.

The betting markets may see Parma as underdogs given these injury concerns, which could impact their chances of securing a positive result away at Atalanta. A full-strength squad would offer more competitive odds, but with key players sidelined, the team’s resilience will be tested.

Parma Key Players

Parma’s attacking threat is led by their top scorer, Mateo Pellegrino, who has found the net six times this season. Pellegrino is pivotal in their offensive setup, often exploiting defensive weaknesses with his sharp finishing and intelligent movement. His partnership with fellow forwards Jacob Ondrejka and Gaetano Oristanio could be instrumental in breaking down Atalanta’s defence.

Behind the strikers, Adrian Bernabé and Nahuel Estévez are expected to control the midfield. Bernabé’s vision and passing accuracy provide a creative spark, while Estévez’s work rate and ball-winning abilities offer a solid defensive contribution. This balance is crucial for Parma’s tactical approach, allowing them to transition smoothly from defence to attack.

Expected lineup for Parma:

• Goalkeeper: Edoardo Corvi
• Defenders: Enrico Del Prato, Alessandro Circati, Lautaro Valenti, Emanuele Valeri
• Midfielders: Adrian Bernabé, Mandela Keita, Nahuel Estévez
• Forwards: Jacob Ondrejka, Mateo Pellegrino, Gaetano Oristanio

Defensively, the likes of Alessandro Circati and Lautaro Valenti form the backbone of the team. Their ability to read the game and make crucial interceptions will be vital against Atalanta’s attacking threats. Meanwhile, Edoardo Corvi in goal will aim to maintain his composure and build on recent performances to keep a clean sheet. Together, these key players form a cohesive unit that Parma hope will secure a positive result.

Parma Tactics and Formation

Parma Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Mateo Pellegrino
• Midfield Composition: Adrian Bernabé, Mandela Keita, Nahuel Estévez
• Defensive Reliability: Two clean sheets in the last five matches
• Notable Strategy: Focus on structured defence and quick transitions.

Parma’s 4-3-3 formation offers a balanced approach between attack and defence. The midfield trio of Adrian Bernabé, Mandela Keita, and Nahuel Estévez provides both defensive cover and creative support, crucial for transitioning play effectively.

Defensively, Parma rely on the coordination of Enrico Del Prato and Alessandro Circati, supported by Lautaro Valenti and Emanuele Valeri as full-backs. This setup has enabled them to secure two clean sheets in their last five games, underpinning their defensive solidity.

Offensively, the team look to Mateo Pellegrino, their top scorer, to spearhead attacks. Wingers Jacob Ondrejka and Gaetano Oristanio complement Pellegrino, providing width and pace. Parma’s strategy often involves quick transitions from defence to attack, leveraging their organised midfield and forward line.

Atalanta vs Parma H2H Record

Atalanta and Parma have faced off 32 times, with Atalanta winning 15, Parma 10, and seven matches ending in a draw. Their latest encounter was a 1-1 draw in Serie A back in August 2025, highlighting a closely matched contest.

The last time Atalanta hosted Parma at the New Balance Arena ended in a surprising 2-3 defeat for the home side in May 2025. Historically, Atalanta have been strong at home, but Parma’s recent win may give them a psychological edge.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Competition	Date
Parma	Atalanta	1 – 1	Serie A	30/08/2025
Atalanta	Parma	2 – 3	Serie A	25/05/2025
Parma	Atalanta	1 – 3	Serie A	23/11/2024
Parma	Atalanta	4 – 1	Friendly Match	04/08/2024
Parma	Atalanta	2 – 5	Serie A	09/05/2021